However I am entering an order to short USDCHF as an S1S, with retracement on D chart, and then a lovely bearish pin bar on the D chart for Thursday. Additionally on the daily rankings I ahve CHF as the strongest and USD as the second weakest, even though on the weekly rankings CHF is 2nd and USD is 3rd (not a great disparity) – for that reason I am lowering the risk to 0.67R.
[21/06/2013 10:12:20] George: enter order to sell @ 9260, stop at 9340 (aggressive as it does not cover the high of the pin bar candle), target 9035.
[21/06/2013 10:37:55] Paul Wallace: http://wp.me/pFP6t-Cj
[21/06/2013 10:37:59] Paul Wallace: I updated my blog
[21/06/2013 10:39:40] Paul Wallace: George that is a valid set-up. I see I missed a short opportunity yesterday on the 4 hour chart. C’est la Vie. Cant be everywhere at once! Lets see how this plays.
[21/06/2013 10:41:12] George: thanks Paul for your comments Paul – that makes me feel like I am on the right track. I have to say that overall the analysis is coming together nicely. I think having a structure/approach for doing the analysis is real good!
[21/06/2013 10:46:32] George: Paul, would you mind the short opportunity on yest’s 4H chart?
[21/06/2013 10:46:40] George: mind sharing
[21/06/2013 10:48:01] Paul Wallace: Thanks for the feedback – the structure will help you stay out of trouble.
[21/06/2013 10:48:38] George: at the moment its taking a long time – 2-4 hours each morning
[21/06/2013 10:48:56] Paul Wallace: The USDCHF 4 hour candle that began at 9am (for me) would have completed at 1pm and gave off a nice 4 hour pin bar off the 89 MA. I was out durig the day – but would have been a nice entry.
[21/06/2013 10:48:57] George: but i guess it will decrease over time – am quite happy to spend time on it at the moment…. learning
[21/06/2013 10:49:26] Paul Wallace: Yes everytime you do it you’ll a) increase your speed and b) increase your deeper understanding of the market structure.
[21/06/2013 10:50:09] George: right there’s no pin bar on my 4h chart, but the noon and 4pm candles on the 4H (on my chart) do look quite bearish – but technically not PA
[21/06/2013 10:50:41] George: Paul, one question I keep coming across…
[21/06/2013 10:51:59] *** Paul Wallace sent usdchf 4 hour pin bar.PNG ***
[21/06/2013 10:52:44] George: should we only ever trade pairs where one currency is strong (e.g. 4 or 5) AND the other is weak (0 or 1) – or is it fine to weigh this along with the chart action. for example that USDCHF trade – is a S1S setup – but USD ranks 3nd and CHF ranks 2nd – so it’s not strength v weakness
[21/06/2013 10:53:11] George: then further on the D rankings, CHF is 1st and USD is 4th (so there we have strength v weakness)
[21/06/2013 10:53:20] George: how much should this come into play?
[21/06/2013 10:54:05] George: oh wow, that pin bar does look nice!
[21/06/2013 10:55:25] Paul Wallace: yes it was the lunchtime candle not the monring candle. My mistake – I wondered why I hadnt seen it in the morning!
[21/06/2013 10:57:21] Paul Wallace: As a greneral rule I tell people new to the comcpet that they’re best off sticking to buying strength and seling weakness. As you do the Stam for a while you start to get an idea of how the underlying market structure is changing..so you may see that AUD & CHF a few weeks back were in similar places. However You’d also have seen that CHF was strengthing and AUD had been weakening over the last few weeks so You’re able to make a call on that one instance.
Note: Order was not filled by the end of 24th June.