Strength & Weakness Jun24

GBPUSD – Still retracing – was waiting for another bullish PA signal on Friday – but this didn’t happen – instead the ‘retracement’ continued – there was also no Corn trade setup on the pair. Thus, now still waiting for bullish PA.
GBPCHF – as noted on Friday, stay away because this pair is too volatile/choppy
GBPJPY – the W chart shows an inside bar. What’s the other PA signal called – double bottom? Is this bullish or bearish PA?
GBPAUD – S1B, could we go long on a 4H-CornTrade basis here? No, there’s no corn trade setup on the 4H chart. However look where the Monday candle closes tomorrow morning. The retracement was 200 pips. Probably not significant enough.
EURGBP – as noted on Friday, this pair simply consolidates a lot – don’t trade for now
EURUSD – Bearish Engulfing candle on the W chart. Trade just the engulfing candle – or is this the wrong approach? This is providing a mixed signal. Bearish engulfing candle but S1B setup. Thus there must be a retracement going on. Has there been bullish PA or is there a corn-trade setup for a bullish trade? So nothing at this stage.
EURJPY – inside bar on W chart. Also the same price action as on GBPJPY – both pairs have the non-JPY currency as being the strong one on the W and D charts, but both bearish momentum. Mixed signals – so don’t trade it.
EURCHF – don’t trade because of the SNB floor on this pair.
EURAUD S1B (5-0) – Bullish Engulfing Candle on W chart. Retracement probably is not strong enough (close to 200 pips). D candle looks to be setting up for an engulfing candle today too. And we have a Corn trade setup on the current 4H candle. And we are trading extreme strength against extreme weakness. Buy now at market but only use 2/3rds unit of R because on the downside the retracement not being huge, and us not waiting for the 4H candle to close before placing the trade. Order placed to buy @ 4285, stop 4195, target 4555 (3:1 R-R). I have to be honest, I feel ok at judging the setups of a trade but I am finding it a little difficult to set targets and stops.
USDCHF – changed from S1S to S2S because of strong USD on Friday – it made the USD stronger than the CHF on the W chart. Need to pull the pending short order on USDCHF because I now need new bearish PA.
CHFJPY – no setup.
AUDCHF – Waiting for retracement, or enter on a Corn-Trade Basis? Would be a valid Corn Trade on the close of the current candle – however recall that I want to avoid large candles – and the current candle would be rather large – therefore I can’t enter on the basis of the current candle.
AUDJPY – got stopped out for full loss on the short position in the opening phase of this week’s trading, even though price has returned below the Friday closing levels – not too far from my opening price level. Do I re-enter on the basis of Corn Trade? For the corn trade I am looking for evenly-sized candles – which is not the case here. Further I am not sure it is a good idea to re-enter on a pair that I have just been stopped on. Maybe there are psychological factors at play here (I want to get even OR a fear is stopping me from following through with another valid setup). Stay out for now.
AUDUSD – Waiting for strong retracement.
USDJPY – Bullish Engulfing candle on W chart – that is a strong bullish sign – however the setup is a S2S – do we therefore not trade the bullish engulfing candle on the W chart? Mixed signals – therefore no trade.
Remember the procedure for the STAM Strategy – complete the matrix to identify strength and momentum, label the setups, look for retracements and then look for confirming price action.
Analysis completed for the day. One order pulled. One new trade entered.

Questions for the coach:
1. For Corn Trades – is a significant reversal on the D chart a prerequisite for entering a Corn Trade e.g. AUDJPY?
2. USDJPY – Bullish Engulfing Candle on W chart, but setup is S2S – do we therefore not trade the bullish engulfing candle? Certainly this would be trading in opposition to the STAM.

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