STAM – Jul10

Some observations:

  • Momentum is against GBP on all GBP pairs
  • Momentum is against EUR on all EUR pairs (except EURGBP)
  • USD and EUR continue to be the strongest across the board
  • CHFJPY has shifted into S2S environment


GBPUSD – S1S See comments on yesterday’s Cable trade

EURUSD – S1S – Bearish Engulfing Candle on D chart yesterday. Reasons for not taking a trade – it’s just 12 hours to FOMC Minutes and Bernanke talking, I would be trading strength v strength (rather than strength v weakness), the pair is coming into support around 1.27, I am already long USD via the Cable trade, additionally there is the question of whether the pullback yesterday on the D was a significant retracement.  Reasons for a trade – definite S1S environment, bearish momentum against EUR across the board, pullback yesterday, bearish engulfing candle on D chart (= bearish PA).  When in doubt, stay out!? No trade for me on this one today.

GBPJPY – S2S No clear trend from the chart, looks more sideways trading. There could be a corn trade setup by the end of the day on the D chart, however the setup would not be very clean – yesterday’s D candle had a long low tail.

EURGBP – still in S1B – waiting for retracement – very nice bearish candle on D chart yesterday.

USDCHF – moving into S1B as momentum is likely to change to bullish this week.  No reversal thus far.

CHFJPY – has just moved into S2S – looks like sideways trading – similar to GBPJPY.

USDJPY – will change to S1B if the momentum does switch to bullish.

No new orders to enter into the market today.

Discipline Strategy

Losing trade on EURUSD.  Cable trade still not filled.  Interestingly both pairs had large 1H candles this morning – EU had a 26 pip range, and Cable 39 pips!



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