Jul 23 – Market Analysis

STAM Analysis

The US dollar is weakening a bit, it has been overtaken by CHF in the rankings, and also lost some ground to GBP.  This sort of puts CHF, USD and GBP in the middle of the matrix with EUR and JPY, AUD at the extreme ends of the scale.

Equity markets had a small up-day yesterday.  Gold gained about $30-$35 – first big green candle in a while.

Pairs with S1/S2 setups that have strength/weakness combinations

EURGBP – Retracement is occurring.  No bullish PA yet.

EURJPY – Retracement is occurring.  Wait for bullish PA on 4H or D chart.

USJPY – Very messy price action.  No setup to go long at this point.

CHFJPY – Waiting for bullish PA.  Look for Corn Trade on 4H chart.  I would be trading a break-out here – price would have to make highs not since mid 2011 in order to be profitable. 

Note that GBPUSD is currently no longer a S1 setup due to Cable continuing to rally the last few sessions.

Action for today:

Check the closing of the 4H candles on EURJPY and CHFJPY for Corn Trade setups.  No new orders to enter into the market at this point in time.

Discipline Strategy 

executed as normal.  3 days to go….

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2 Responses to Jul 23 – Market Analysis

  1. Tuesday evening 10pm – Took another look at the four pairs mentioned above.
    – Considered entering a long order on CHFJPY because there was a 100-pip retracement
    – It looks as if a decent bullish pin bar will form on the daily chart.
    – in April there was a high of 107.43, prior to that price hadnt reached these levels for the past two years.
    – Weekly chart looks bullish
    – Look to buy around 106.60 (the high of the pin bar) and place stop @ 105.80 (recent low). The difficulty here is going for a target. As discussed, anything above 107.40 would be a two-year high.
    – Trading strength v weakness (CHF v JPY)
    – No major news announcements for the rest of the week
    – The Risk:Reward just doesn’t look good
    – And the pin bar does not look that impressive when compared to other candles on the chart
    – Conclusion: Not a justified setup, therefore no trade.

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  2. 6.15am UK time:
    On the D chart, a nice bullish pin bar did form. Price dipped again to 105.30 and is now rallying.
    I will enter a trade – to get around the risk-reward I will set the stop at 106.15 (50 pips) and go for 107.80 (120 pips)
    I am buying strength/selling weakness, trading with the trend, there has been a pullback and now there’s bullish PA
    I am not completely confident so will trade it at 0.5 R (R=£925)

    Enter order to pay 106.62, stop 106.15, target 107.40 (for 15 mini-lots)

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