Aug27 – Market Analysis

The matrix still shows a rather clear position – EUR and CHF are strong, AUD and JPY are weak, GBP and USD are sitting in the middle.  None of the pairs falling into a strength/weakness  situation, thus at first impression I say there are no potential trades.  It is still the last week of August, so it’s likely that the markets will still be fairly quiet.  There was no trading in London yesterday, because of the UK’s public holiday.

There are some other pairs that have S1 or S2 setups.  I will briefly talk through these:

  • GBPUSD (neutral v neutral) – there is some a good retracement at this point, so could wait for bullish price action to confirm a bullish entry – however Carney speaks tomorrow – so no order at this point.
  • GBPJPY (neutral v weak) – good retracement here also on the D chart today, but again because of Carney tomorrow, no trade – the candles on this chart look messier/choppier than Cable
  • GBPAUD (neutral v weak) – 200-250 pip retracement on daily chart, doji/pin bar on daily chart, corn-trade setup on 4H chart. Consider entry at 7340, stop at 7240, target 7460 – RR 1.2. But next candle on 4H chart now looks quite bearish.  And the weekly momentum is not yet confirmed as bullish – it was still bearish as at the end of last week – too many questionable factors – so leave this.
  • EURUSD (strong v neutral) – no clear retracement, and price is finding resistance against 200MA on W chart.
  • USDCHF (neutral v strong) – no retracement – lots of wicks on the candles on the D chart.
  • USDJPY (neutral v weak) –  the last few candles on the D chart have had very small bodies, and could have some bearish aspects, additionally the 89MA seems to be providing resistance

Overall, no orders to enter into the market.

Equity markets – Gold has rallied up to $1,400 over the past couple of weeks.  Equity markets – overall, they are consolidating a little.  European and US markets are not far from their historic highs still, particularly the Nasdaq, which seems to be outperforming the S&P and the Dow Jones.

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