Aug29 – Market Analysis

Equity markets have rallied a little bit, gold and oil have retraced a little – presumably because military action has not yet taken place against Syria, and it might still take a few more days yet.

The Yen has fallen back also, and has slipped back down in the rankings again, falling into the ‘weak’ category.

None of the pairs with strength/weakness combinations are in a S1/S2 setup (EUR, CHF versus AUD, JPY).

What about the pairs that are showing a S1/S2 setup?

  • GBPUSD (neutral/neutral) – has now had a nice 200 pip retracement – waiting for bullish PA
  • GBPJPY (neutral/weak) – also had a good retracement (400 pips!) – now waiting for bullish PA – looks like we could have a Corn-trade setup on the 4H chart – consider setup here, waiting for the 4H candle to close – which happens at 11am (about 1hr10min away).  There’s no remaining GBP news this week.  Target 153.40, stop 151.60, Entry 152,40 maybe – only use 0.5R because it is not a strength/weakness setup.  Risk – Yen is likely to strengthen if the situation in Syria gets closer to Western participation in the military conflict (because of Yen’s safe-haven status).
  • GBPAUD (neutral/weak) – momentum is looking to change turning this into a S1B setup – no retracement at this point – the 4H corn-trade that I had considered earlier this week would have missed the target by around 20 pips and most likely turned into a BE trade.
  • EURUSD (stong/neutral) – retracement is occurring, wait for bullish PA
  • USDJPY (neutral/weak) – very similar setup to GBPJPY except that the momentum is a little stronger still on the 4H chart – can’t place a trade on this one because there’s USD news this afternoon
  • USDCHF (neutral/strong) – very good retracement going again, wait for bearish PA

No new orders to enter into the market, but will consider GBPJPY for a trade at 11am with 0.5R.

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