Sep2 – Market Analyis

GBPJPY trade closed for a full profit – nice!  Though it is scary that it gapped up 70-80 pips on Sunday nights.  If it had gapped down then I would have lost more than my full stop loss!!

THIS IS A HUGE WEEK IN TERMS OF ANNOUNCEMENTS – we have interest rate announcements from BOE, BOJ, ECB and the RBA.  That is followed by NFP on Friday.  Proceed with caution!

No military action on Syria as yet.

Oil is dropping back down (so this introduced quite a bit of volatility last week!).  Gold is holding steady.  Stock markets are holding steady.

FX markets

Not much change in the overall matrix rankings.  EUR, CHF and GBP continue to be at the strong end of the list – however GBP is moving up and EUR is moving down.  AUD and JPY are still on the weak end of the spectrum.  Interestingly both EURJPY and CHFJPY, although it is strength against weakness in both cases, are actually indicating sell setups (S2S in both cases).  None of the AUD crosses are showing setups.  GBP is also showing setups against EUR and CHF – so clearly GBP is getting stronger.  Thus on that note, we should consider trading GBP against any of JPY, AUD and USD.  On GBPJPY we just completed a trade, so I don’t have a setup there; with GBPAUD there is no clear momentum (the momentum lines are on top of each other). 

Finally there is Cable  – on Cable there has been a retracement for quite some time now (see D chart).  Finally there was a doji on Friday.  Earlier last week there were also two big bullish pin bars – clearly showing that price had difficulty pushing lower.  Arguably we have a trade here, but I can’t enter an order at this time – I would need to wait until an hour after the 9.30am GBP news.

USDCHF – still waiting for bearish price action, as the retracement has taken place now.


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