Sep 4 – Market Analysis

Nikkei has been rallying.  Gold and oil are fairly stable.  Not much movement in the European and US equity markets.

Tomorrow is the big day for the FX markets with 3 interest rate announcements, and then NFP figures on Friday.

In terms of the matrix, AUD and JPY are now sitting right at the bottom of the pile.  I should expect that there are “retracements” on most of the AUD pairs since those AUD pairs are all rallying in favour of AUD right now.  Thus, on all of these, there is the potential to short AUD if the appropriate price action appears (maybe after all the interest rate meetings this week).  However JPY is definitely weak right now – is there a chance to get in on those pairs?  Any setups would potentially be nullified since tomorrow (Thu) and Fri provide major catalysts on  EUR, GBP, USD and JPY!  So there is no way that I can set up a trade in any case.  The very earliest would be Friday afternoon.

However the only pair continuing to have a S1B setup is GBPJPY, which is now trading nearly 200 pips above the level at which I exited my long position.

Short-term momentum and George’s personal trading thoughts – DISCPLINE!!!

Overall, in terms of the FX markets, there continues to be strong short-term momentum for GBP and AUD.  JPY continues to weaken.  It would seem that you simply couldn’t lose today if you went long GBP and AUD and shorted JPY.  Surely the chances here are not 50/50, but at least 55/45.  Additionally for AUD and JPY there is no scheduled news for the day (there’s news for GBP).  But for now, I will not take trades based on my observations like this.  I have one particular strategy and that’s what I am trading.  I am a disciplined trader.  I am in the process of working on new strategies based on STAM, but for now I am not taking any trades.  This is a long-term business, and I need to be disciplined in order to survive.


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