Sep10 – Market Analysis

Market update

US Equity markets put in a good day yesterday, with the Nasdaq reaching new all-time highs (Crisis? What Crisis?).  All of the equity markets are rallying strongly today, presumably on the basis of some potential solutions for Syria.

FX Market

CHF is continuing to lose, whilst GBP and AUD are strong across the board.  The Yen is getting weak across the board.  Weekly momentum is shifting against Yen on three fronts (EUR, USD and CHF)  However there have not been any retracements on any of the Yen pairs.  Things are changing across the market.  And this week is light on news.  Is this the start of some new big trends? 

How much does this correlate with rallying equity markets?  Does Yen fall when the equity markets rise?  Does Yen still have safe-haven status, which is currently falling in demand?

GBPJPY – This has gone up around another 100 pips since my analysis yesterday morning.  This pair continues to be the only strength/weakness combination that also has a valid S1/S2 setup.  But there has not been a retracement.

George’s Personal Trader Reflections

Although I can see these things going on, I do not have any valid setups within my STAM environment.  Therefore I will not enter any orders into the market.  From my full-time trading stint in 2010 and 2011, one of the biggest strengths I had was that I only traded within the parameters of my chosen strategies – I did not trade on a whim, or when I thought something was simply going on (with the only exceptions being trades revolving around Japanese and Swiss central bank interventions).  I will continue to build on this strength.  On the positive side, I can see that my understanding of the FX market continues to improve – and that I am growing as a trader.  Stay out of the market if there is no setup!


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