Sep 13 – Market Analysis (+new long in GBPJPY)

Equity Markets are steady – Nasdaq and CAC all time-highs.  After the strong rallies of Mon-Wed, price has steadied a little.  Oil is steady but Gold is falling back towards $1,300.

FX Market

  • No change in the matrix – all the points are still the same, meaning that everything is holding in place.
  • All of the GBP pairs are in S1/S2 setups (in favour of GBP)  – I would be happy to trade against JPY and CHF at the moment because JPY is weak, and CHF is weakening.
  • Three of the AUD pairs are in S1/S2 setups (in favour of AUD) – I would be happy to trade this against JPY because it is weak, and against CHF because CHF is weakening
  • All the other GBP and AUD combinations – I would not be looking to trade because there are of equal or similar strengths.
  • Four pairs have uncertain weekly momentum at the moment, so am looking to trade these pairs.
  • GBPCHF – I still have my pending order in the market, and am happy to leave it in there.
  • GBPJPY – New trade – long GBPJPY – GBP has been showing strength and JPY has been showing weakness.  JPY did show some strength in the middle of this week, thus causing a halt and/or retracement in all the JPY pairs.  In the case of this pair, the retracement was more than 150 pips.  Overnight from Thu to Fri, GBPJPY had a further corn-trade setup on the 4H chart.  When I saw this shortly after coming into the office at 8am, I immediately entered a pending order into the market.  Additionally there had been a bullish pin bar.    Stop 156.95 (below the previous 4H candle).  In terms of targets – I am not sure – there is the previous high around 158.30 (+70, 1:1), and then the next levels of resistance date from 2008 around 161 (+340, 5.2:1) -162 (+440, 6.7:1).  I will discuss this with my trading coach when we skype this afternoon.
  • AUDCHF – I had been looking for a 3BBO on that this morning.  Nothing for now.  Look at it again on Monday morning.
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