Sep20 – Market Analysis

Overall 

Equity Markets have stabilised a little bit.  The US markets continue to outperform the European equity markets to some degree.

Germany has its general elections this coming Sunday.  Chinese flash PMI on Sunday night.

George’s personal trading

I am now looking at the market as follows – the Strength Matrix (W/D) is the starting point, the foundation – as well as currencies’ absolute position I am also interested in recent movements (e.g. some days ago AUD and CHF had the same absolute ranking, but AUD was strengthening, while CHF was weakening).  This gives me an immediate bias as to what currencies I would like to buy and which I would like to sell – I disregard the neutral ones – this gives me the currency pairs to look at – for those I will consider, in order, the original STAM strategy (with S1, S2 setups), S3 setups (and looking at the 4H 21MA) and my personal demand and supply zones.

I have now added the NZD charts to my analysis, meaning I am now looking at 21 currency pairs (rather than 15).  Additionally, I will no longer calculate the matrix manually, but will instead rely on the custom calculation provided by my trading coach.

FX Markets

The markets are fairly calm.  There has been limited movement.  The overall risk-on move has reversed with Cable.  The currencies continuing to show strength against all others are CHF and NZD.

USD is claiming back some of the losses it had against the other currencies on Wed night.  Ideally I am looking to buy CHF, AUD, EUR, GBP, NZD (if risk-on continues) and sell JPY and USD (if risk-on continues).  Actually if USD were to regain, then JPY would be the only weakening pair.  JPY and CAD, but CAD I have not started looking at yet.

Since I have now included the NZ dollar in my analysis, I have to immediately say that the NZD has been the strongest currency in the past couple of weeks, outperforming every other currency out there.

Thus, to sum up….

Due to German elections on Sunday, and the potential for decent size gaps on Sunday night, following the volatility in the markets this week, I will not enter any orders into the market, at this time.

Note I am continuing to move up my stop loss on the GBPJPY position in line with the short MA on the 4H chart.  The stop for the remaining portion of the position is now at 158.40 (which locks 81 pips of profit), recall half of the position was taken off at 159.85 (+226 pips).

 

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