Sep25 – Market Analysis

George’s personal notes

Both orders were filled overnight (between 2 and 3am).  I did not check the markets prior to the French course this morning. I am doing it now instead at 1.45pm.  It served me well to count on a retracement for getting filled.  I shave 10-12 pips off the GBPUSD entry (reducing stop size from 60 to 50 pips) and 8-10 pips (stop size reduced from 38 to 30 pips) of the EURGBP entry.

ERROR/MISTAKE!! – I just realised that I made a mistake in my position sizing on the EURGBP trade. Ultimately I have used a stop size of 30 pips – meaning I should be trading £25/pip if I am risking £750 on the position.  However I used a 40 pip stop loss to calculate this (originally I had planned to put my stop at 8465, rather than 8455) – so in effect I am only risking £17/pip – or £510 on the whole position.  Did this happen because I was tired at 10.30pm at night when making these calculations? How can I ensure that this does not happen again?

There has been a fair amount of momentum in the markets this afternoon, particularly Sterling strength and JPY weakness. It’s important that i don’t get caught up in the hype of moment, just because I happen to sit in front of my machine.  I need to continue to trade within my strategy parameters and chill!

Markets overall

Equity markets still falling back a little bit.  No major change on Tuesday (or today thus far).  Gold and oil are steady.

FX Market

No change in the matrix rankings.  NZD is showing weakness across the board. 

S1 setups with strength/weakness combinations:

  • EURJPY – starting to show some bullish signs – await 4h corn-trade setup – check chart again at 7 and 11pm.  I will need to be patient and see what happens on the 4H chart for EURJPY, as yet there is no corn-trade setup. 
  • GBPJPY – now looking very good on the 4H chart – price has been rallying the last couple of hours.  Check chart again at 3pm.  (Possibly better to go with EURJPY because I already have 1.5R riding on GBP.) Price has moved very strongly over the last 4H candle, and 150 pips over the last 8 hours – I think I have to say that I have missed the boat on this one? 
  • CHFJPY – also awaiting a 4H corn-trade setup here.  Check again at 7pm.
  • AUDJPY – has been falling.  Consider on the D chart.  Less likely that there will be a corn-trade setup here.
  • NZDJPY – is continuing to fall – it has been declining all week thus far (on the 4H chart) – bullish pin bar forming on D chart – check again tonight at 10pm.
  • GBPUSD – currently has an open position – this has been rallying strongly and is now 80 pips in profit.  The initial target was 1.6110.  Afraid that price could just steam past it, I have raised the target to 1.6135 (+145 pips; 2.9:1) and amazingly I am shifting my stop-loss to break-even only around 12 hours after entering the trade.
  • NZDUSD – has been falling all week.  Wait for bullish price action.
  • None of the other S1 setups are strength/weakness combinations

S2 setups:

  • AUDUSD – chart is not indicating a setup.  Trading sideways since the small retracement.

There are no other interesting S2 setups at this point in time.

Next action:

Check market again at 7pm – when the next 4H candles close.  Mainly interested in those JPY pairs.  Also need to manage the stop loss on the EURGBP position.   (In the meantime do some skate training, and work on that research task re NZD and CAD) 

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