Oct3 – Market Analysis

Open Positions

The AUDNZD is still open – I have moved the stop loss to 1.1325 (locking in 60 pips of profit).  Price has moved around a bit overnight but not a lot – the real volatility came around 10pm when price NEARLY got to my target for an instant – shame it didn’t go 10 pips further – as I would have been out for a full profit of 150 pips.

The pair has now rallied back to around 1300-1310 after trading as low as 1265.  Right now it seems to be consolidated.  I guess from either it will either rally and my trade will close at 1325 or will it crumble, roll over and go lower and hit my initial target later in the day.  The latest 4H candle looks now bullish.

My patience paid off for going long NZDJPY at 8090 – got filled around 1am this morning and did retrace a bit further.  It was more than 50 pips in profit earlier this morning, so I have moved to the stop loss to break-even.  The latest 4H candle looks bearish.

Yesterday was a long day, but it was a lot better than Tuesday – I kept my mind together although it did get quite tiring.  The sessions in Joe’s trading room are very interesting – it’s great to see someone trade completely different to what I do.  I have yet to make up my mind whether I will give this trading approach an attempt or not.

Market Analysis

Stockmarkets, gold and oil fairly stable.  All of the news was digested fairly well.  US government continues in shut-down mode.

FX Market

Nothing has changed in terms of weakness and strength on the matrix (on an absolute basis).  This morning I started exporting more data from FXCM to enable me to track how a currency is moving around.  Not finished yet.

S1 setups

The Yen pairs – there was a lot of bullish price action on the Yen pairs on the 4H and D charts towards the end of Wednesday.  As blogged last night, I took a long position in NZDJPY, as that one seemed to be the best one on the basis of price action and potential target and stop locations. 

Price is rallying fairly well against all the JPY pairs – I didn’t get on these.  That’s ok.  Nothing to do on this for now.  Have another look once the 3pm candles have closed.

The dollar pairsCable – there has been a nice bullish pin bar on the 4H chart, however there has not been any retracement – price has been trading around the supply zone, trading sideways.  EURUSD is rallying into a supply zone too.  There was no STAM setup. NZDUSD – I had been considering a trade on this pair late last night, but then it looked as if price had already moved too much – and it was also a case of choosing between this pair and NZDJPY.  There is a nice bullish pin bar on the chart for Wed, however one downside here is that the recent high is only around 100 pips away so it does not allow for a good RR ratio.  Also, quite a few of the candles from the recent consolidation have long wicks – doesn’t look good.  USDCHF – there has not been a retracement.

AUDNZD and NZDJPY are both in S1 environments – I have open positions on both.

Nothing to report on the S2 setups.

Next action

I am not going to be too bummed out about the big profit on the open positions that is likely to evaporate into thin air.  At one point this morning I was up 0.75R in unrealised profit from last night’s close, and once all the positions have closed, I will most likely end up losing about 0.75R from last night’s close – that’s a 1.5R swing!!

I’ll check the 4H candles once I have come back from playing sport with my buddy.

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