Oct 9 – Market Analysis (8am)

Personal reflections

Started work at 6.45am again today (after going to sleep at 10pm yesterday) – I actually seem to prefer early starts. The idea is to work to 4pm today, and then go skating, and then be done for the day!!

Long GBPUSD (entry 6105, stop 6005, target 6190)

Entered long trade on GBPUSD yesterday afternoon.  Why didn’t I document my reasons for entering the trade here promptly?  GBP is strong, USD is weak – based on last week’s W candle, the currency pair is still in a S1B environment.  The pair retraced from the supply zone above – total retracement approx 250 pips.  Monday’s D candle produced an inside bar and price was then hovering right on the weekly pivot line (note that I only started to introduce pivot lines into my trading plan following the weekend’s “Traders Forum 3” seminar).  At that time Cable was trading 6090 and I entered order to buy at 6085 – it was at this time that price started a steady/consistent rally up to 6125 (35 pips) – I raised my entry price to 6105 and was eventually filled – I continued raising my entry level because I was scared to miss out on a potential winning trade.  It was ok to enter in terms of news, because there was basically only some UK news at 9.30 on Wed morning, and although there will be FOMC minutes on Wed at 7pm, these are likely to only have a muted effect given the US government shutdown situation, and the comments that have already been made by FOMC members since the last FOMC meeting.

Market Overview

Equity markets all fell yesterday – not massively but enough – gold and oil are holding steady.  IMF downgraded global growth forecast yesterday.  US government shutdown continues – China and Japan are complaining that it is taking the US politicians so long to resolve things.

FX Market

No change in the strong/weak groups.  In fact the points are identical to what they were yesterday.

S1 setups with strength (or strengthening)/weak combinations

Yen pairs – remember that all the Yen pairs are still in S1B environment on the basis of last week’s candles, even though on the MT4 platform the weekly momentum is shown in favour of JPY.  I looked at the charts of NZDJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY, EURJPY and CHFJPY.  All of them show good retracement over recent days and are starting to show some bullish price action on the 4H chart, though nothing worthy of a credible setup.  All the pairs showed bearish pin bar on the daily chart for Tuesday. Thus, in summary, nothing doing on the Yen pairs.

USD pairs – as discussed, I have a long position on Cable (which is currently half-way toward the stop loss). EURUSD nothing NZDUSD nothing USDCHF nothing

CAD pairs – quite a few currency pairs are in S1 environments.  Looked at the charts of EURCAD NZDCAD GBPCAD CADCHF – no setups.

S2 setups with strength (or strengthening)/weak combinations

AUDUSD nothing AUDCAD no retracment

Next action points

It doesn’t look like we are anywhere near any STAM setups. 

Pay attention to the open Cable trade during the UK news at 9.30, review the 4H chart at 3pm, and then pay attention during the FOMC Minutes release (7pm) and consider whether there is anything that I would consider getting into, depending on how the market reacts to the news.  Should I be adjusting my working schedule for the day and work from 6pm to 8pm, and take off between 1pm and 6pm?

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