Oct17 – Market Analysis

Personal Reflections

This week has been a bit unusual with no market analysis for the past two days.  However have done some good work on the psychological aspects – an area that I have pin-pointed as instrumental for a successful trading operation.

Market Overview

Looks like a deal has been agreed between Democrats and Republicans to raise the debt ceiling.  This has removed uncertainty (and risk?) from the financial markets.  Equity markets continued to rally – all equity markets are at or near historical highs – why are the markets so high?

FX Markets

Still two camps.  EUR is strengthening a little (11), NZD still on top (12), both CHF and EUR now on 9.  AUD still on 7, USD and CAD are now on 4, and JPY has dropped to 0!  Looking for setups against any of the three week currencies.

Yen pairs – None of the relevant pairs have the requirements of retracement and relevant price action.

USD pairs – Lack of retracement, sideways trading.  USDCHF is again a consideration.  It has just completed a 4H corn-trade setup.  On the D chart there are a lot of tails to the upside – into what I had previously considered as a supply zone.  There are two USD news items this afternoon, but not overly significant ones.  USD is on 4 (strengthening a little), CHF is on 9 (weakening a little).  So D chart is looking ok for a bearish trade, 4H chart is looking ok for a bearish trade.  It is buying strength, selling weakness, there has been a retracement, and now there is bearish price action.

Entered order to sell @ 0.9110, stop 0.9155, target 0.9020 – again price dipped around 10 pips just as I wanted to enter my order – did I miss out again, just like I did on Monday morning?  By now it is trading 0.9086 – lol, it really was a matter of two minutes!!  [Entered order at 8.19am, removed order at 8.29am when price had rached .9075 – the price level at which I would have moved my stop loss – price is now trading .9058 – that’s ok, maybe I will catch the next trade like that!]

CAD pairs – No setups on the CAD pairs.

Action points

  • Resolve issue of how MT4 dashboard is picking up the weekly momentum figures – why do my MT5 weekly momentum figures differ from the MT4 figures?
  • Communicate with Wayne re the S2 formula on the MT4 dashboard
  • Check the charts again at 3pm today – after another set of 4H candles have closed
  • Observe how prices react in GBP pairs, following the GBP news, and in how USD pairs react following the USD news.
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One Response to Oct17 – Market Analysis

  1. The USDCHF has gone smack into the “would be”-target for a “would-be”-profit of 2R. Shame!

    Meanwhile I have gone long NZDJPY @ 83.04 (target 83.75, stop 82.65) – have since shifted stop to 82.95 as price has reached a high of 83.40 already. Risked 1/4 unit of R on this trade as it is strictly speaking not a STAM trade, because there has not been a retracement. Bullish pin bar on 4H chart, price looks to have rebounded from demand zone. Buying strength, selling weakness.

    I realised I didn’t pay attention to pivot lines today!

    Market update following 3pm close of 4H candles:
    Yen pairs – quite a few bullish pin bars on 4H charts, and coming out of demand zones.
    Dollar pairs – huge USD weakness in last eight hours, but there was no setup (other than for the USDCHF pair as discussed above)
    CAD pairs – also some good volatility here the past 8 hours, but nothing further to set up.

    Like

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