Oct18 – Market Analysis

Personal reflections

The NZDJPY trade was stopped out overnight for a small loss of 9 pips.  Had a good catch-up mentoring session with my coach yesterday afternoon.  Feeling good about today’s trading and work tasks that I have on my list to get through.  Are the daily visualization exercises already helping?

Market Overview

Equity markets continue to rally.  Gold is back at $1,320.  Oil is steady.  A lot of the USD news that was not released during the US government shutdown will be released over the next two weeks, with the NFP figures scheduled to be released on Tuesday afternoon.

FX Markets

No change in strong and weak groups.  US dollar took a hammering across the board yesterday, against all other currencies.

Thus, I am still looking at three categories of potential trades (with each one going against one of NZD, EUR, CHF, GBP or AUD):

Yen pairs – USDJPY has had a nice bearish engulfing candle on the D chart – however cannot trade weakness again weakness.  None of the other pairs have experienced a retracement, they have simply rallied along.  All the D and 4H charts look very similar.  No STAM setup on Yen.

USD pairs – As with Yen, the pairs moved without any setup (other than the USDCHF that I just missed yesterday morning).  Additionally there was actually a corn-trade setup on Cable too.  In any case, USD started collapsing around 7.45am and never looked back.  No STAM setups on USD at this time.

CAD pairs – NZDCAD (S1B) – bit of a retracement on the 4H chart, and starting to have some long tails on the downside, but overall the bullish price action is not convincing enough – additionally I would be going long very close to the top here.  CADCHF – bearish engulfing candle on D chart – but same as with NZDCAD – selling near the very bottom.  Nothing doing on the other CAD pairs.  No STAM setups on CAD at this time.

Action points

Do another quick review at 2.45pm – as the 4H candles are about to close at that time

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