Oct 22 – Market Analysis

Overall Markets

Equity markets and Gold fairly stable, consolidating ahead of the NFP figures today.  Gold continues to hit resistance at the 89MA on the D chart, after rallying strongly on Thursday, it is now hovering and consolidating for the 3rd straight session – undoubtedly it is awaiting the NFP figure before it will head into either direction – this is the kind of “STAM-News” trade that I am looking to develop – i.e. to enter into the trade very soon after the news release.

FX Markets

A lot of consolidation across the board yesterday.  Zero changes in terms of the STAM rating points.  Thus I am still looking for the same setups – looking to buy AUD, EUR, NZD and GBP and looking to sell JPY, USD and CAD.

Note I will be rather reluctant to enter any orders into the market prior to the NFP figures this afternoon, even though many people expect the number to have a muted effect.  But just think – what would happen if the August is revised significantly – this could have a rather drastic impact.  This is the case for any currency pair even the non-USD pairs.

Yen Pairs – the Yen pairs are continuing to rally, albeit creep up slowly, across the board.  There have not been any STAM opportunities to go long.  NZDJPY is consolidating.  No STAM setups on Yen.

USD Pairs – yesterday I was looking for 3BBO setups on the 4H chart, and had checked the market again at 3pm and 7pm, to no avail.  How is it looking now?  NZDUSD has retraced around 60 pips from the previous high, and could get some bullish price action on 4H chart. Nothing convincing at this point & can’t trade ahead of NFP.  No setups on the other pairs either.  Price is often trading in fairly tight ranges – which indicates to me that NFP may well NOT have a muted effect!  No STAM setups on USD.

CAD Pairs – On GBPCAD I was looking for a bullish pin bar but that has not occurred.  Nothing doing on the other CAD pairs. No STAM setups on CAD.

Thus, in summary, no orders to enter into the market.  See what happens at 1.30pm when NFP is released.

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One Response to Oct 22 – Market Analysis

  1. 1.30pm (NFP) update:
    After looking at all of the pairs for the purpose of S3 setups, I realised that weekly momentum has really turned against GBP. The momentum is always in favour of the non-GBP currency, and for all other than AUD, this change occurred in the last 2-3 weeks. On the other hand, the weekly momentum on NZD and AUD is extremely strong, the momentum is also in favour of these pairs. Consequently I think I will revise my stance on GBP, in that I am no longer looking to buy it, instead I am willing to sell it against the really strong currencies i.e. EUR, AUD and NZD. If I do that, then I also have to treat CHF in the same manner as that is weakening alongside GBP, and at an equal, if not faster, rate.

    Thus following NFP, I will take a good look at EURGBP, GBPAUD, GBPNZD as well as AUDCHF and NZDCHF.
    GBPAUD – there is a bit of lack of bearish price action, however there has been a 3BBO setup on the D chart – there has not been a retracement, instead price declined and then consolidated. Price has been consolidating since then, but it looks as if it could break to the downside. However there is AUD news at 1.30am on Wed morning, followed by GBP news at 9.30am. Target and stop setting could be a little tricky.
    GBPNZD – there is also a lack of bearish price action on this pair, although there has been a retracement on the D chart, and some bearish price action on 4H chart in terms of pin bars. There is the GBP news in the morning but I could potentially manage the trade through that.

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