Oct23 – Market Analysis – “Ok I have no idea what’s going on!!”

Market Overview

The NFP figures were released yesterday afternoon, and they did actually cause a fair amount of volatility in the market – thanks to prior figure being revised.  The markets have been turbulent since the release, initially rallying but then selling off overnight, with all the equity markets being down this morning.  Gold rallied a little further pushing through the 89MA on the D chart and reaching $1,340. Oil is steady.

FX Market Overview

The rating points have not changed from yesterday – however there have been large candles on the chart, with many pairs retracing from their earlier trend.  AUD strengthened overnight because of positive CPI release.

I did make some notes yesterday regarding the weekly momentum (this was triggered by me trying to apply the S3 type setup), and how this impacts on my willingness to trade certain currencies. Tallying up the weekly momentum I get NZD-7, AUD-6, EUR-5, JPY-4, CHF-3, CAD-2, USD-1 and GBP-0.  This reconciles with the matrix where NZD, EUR and AUD are either holding their strong positions or moving up, and CHF/GBP/USD/CAD are either moving down or staying in their weak positions.  JPY looks to be the one that is the next one to change.  On that basis my bias would be to consider the following:

  • Buy AUD, EUR, NZD against GBP/CHF/CAD/JPY/USD  (subject to S1 or S2 setups)
  • Any on the flipside I am not interested anything currencies within the same group.
  • What I am seeing this morning is a strengthening of all the currencies that I am listing as ‘sell’ – meaning that it could be the case that pullbacks are occurring, which will give me a chance to get back on the bigger trend.

AUD pairs – as with NZD, very heavy selling of AUD.  Why?  As with NZD, now looking for AUD-friendly price action to rejoin the bigger trend.  This is the case against CHF, USD, CAD, JPY and GBP.  No STAM setup at this time.

EUR pairs – EURCAD has taken off, no entry opportunity. Same with EURGBP and EURUSD.  Pulling back against JPY.  Not tradeable against CHF.  No STAM setup at this time.

NZD pairs – a lot of weakening overnight heavy losses across the board – loss against AUD triggered by AUD CPI data,   Looking for appropriate price action on 4H chart for GBPNZD, NZDCAD, NZDCHF, NZDJPY and NZDUSD.  I did a quick search for NZD news – I could not find any reason for the selling in NZD.  No STAM setup at this time, but keep an eye out!

Equities and Gold – started to take a bit of a closer look on these.

Action to take

Check for bullish/price action on 4H charts at 3pm – NZD pairs, AUD pairs and EUR pairs.

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One Response to Oct23 – Market Analysis – “Ok I have no idea what’s going on!!”

  1. 3pm update: For a while there, it looked as if I was going to get a whole bunch of pinbars in favor of AUD and NZD to have a whole lot of STAM setups, but it was not meant to be in the end. Price fell back towards 3pm. All potential CAD setups are disregarded because of BOC announcements within the next two hours.
    Also kept a careful eye on EURJPY to see whether it would produce a bullish pin bar on the 4H chart but it did not. No trade.


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