Oct24 – Market Analysis

Personal reflection

Another long day in the office yesterday – still felt very tired. Too much coffee?  Not enough sleep.  It was relief to attend Zaks trading cafe in the evening and talk with some other traders as well as listen to some talk about the markets.  Seems like I am getting good at sitting on my hands though – I guess that will all change once I start trading in Joe Branco’s trading room within 1-2 weeks.

I also entered an S3 setup (long EURCHF) on the close of the 11pm candle last night.  Got filled overnight and am now in small profit position.  Risking less than 0.1R on the trade because I am obviously still learning the strategy.

Overall Markets

US equity markets are going sideways a bit.  Spain is looking to open 2%, whereas the DAX is gapping up – ??.  Gold is steady. A bit of EUR data coming out today.

FX Markets

Lot of changes from yesterday – moving up CHF (8 to 10), JPY (from 1 to 2), USD (from 3 to 4), AUD (from 7 to 8) – moving down GBP (from 9 to 7), CAD (from 4 to 2) and NZD (from 13 to 12).

Therefore I have a selling bias on GBP, CAD, USD, JPY – have a buy bias on CHF, AUD, NZD, EUR.  Did my analysis a bit differently today.  Basically clicked through the 28 charts with my biases in my mind.  Singled out potential setups and only then went to see whether they were in S1 or S2 environments.  Focused on 4H and D charts.

GBPAUD – Look out for 4H corn-trade setup at 3pm (ahead of Carney talk?) – EURGBP hitting resistance in 89MA and 200MA on D chart.  GBPNZD – price is trading in between a whole lot of MA’s and above a demand zone – leave it for now.

I would like to get short USDCHF but there’s no entry opportunity – wait for a pullback.

Potential immediate setups – EURJPY (S1B), GBPAUD (S2S), AUDUSD (S2B) – EURJPY wait till 8.30 news, if price jumps then I go long.  On the 4H charts there have been quite a few tails to the downside (strength), there seems to be support from the demand zone, price did make a nice pullback – now looking to go further – EUR strength, JPY weakness. Looks like price wanted to pull back to the daily pivot line before rallying further.  Mediocre corn-trade setup on 4H chart too. Difficulty with stops and targets.  Well the pullback was not that significant – 100.  GBPAUD – I would like to get short, but the case is not overwhelming.  If I am strict with the STAM setup, then I have to say that it is not really there!!  Same story with AUDUSD.

Looked at Gold and equity indices for setups.

Next action

Review 4H charts at 11am.

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One Response to Oct24 – Market Analysis

  1. 11am update – liked the close of the 4H candle on EURJPY. The candle had a long low tail. Entered order to pay 134.45, stop 133.85. Will take off 1/2 the position at 135.25, and let the 2nd half ride. Using full unit of risk (£1,250) or £21.50/pip – went with ActiveTrades on those because their spread is a consistent 1.6 pips.
    Got filled shortly afterwards – well done on not chasing the price, as it had already been trading up to 51/52. In fact I did raise my entry from 43 to 45 already – which did end up costing me 2 pips – it’s a fine line between chasing and letting price “come to me”.


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