Oct25 – Market Analysis

Open Position & Reflections

My EURJPY is still open and is currently trading half-way toward the stop loss – down 30 pips – with stop loss being 60.  Although EUR continues to be strong, Yen has been strengthening across all pairs over the last 24 hours, with EURJPY being one of the most resilient pairs against the Yen strength.  The 4H chart ain’t looking healthy.  There is EUR news at 9am (in 1.5 hours).  If the trade survives until the end of the day, then I will need to consider whether or not I should hold the trade going into the weekend.

I am being patient as a trader – great – again though, it is difficult to only enter so few trades on a monthly basis.  My coach has tried to remind me that this summer has not been a good trading environment – which can happen, and which makes me manage my expectations.  However I think I am doing the right thing by pursuing more strategies at this time, particularly ones with a higher trading frequency.

Equity Markets

Continue to rally state-side.  Mainly on positive corporate earnings announcements.  No other major points to report.  Gold is pushing up a little.  A careful review this morning shows that all of the indices are in a S1B environment, with bullish weekly momentum and price trading above MA’s on daily and weekly charts.  The only markets currently in a pullback are Japan, Italy and Spain.  Waiting for bullish price action.

FX Markets

Big changes over the last 24 hours.  The main point being that NZD lost 3 points (4 points in 2 days) and GBP bounced back from 7 to 9, with CHF gaining an additional point also.

So we now have a buy bias on EUR, CHF, AUD and a sell bias on JPY, CAD, USD.  Not sure how to handle GBP and NZD for now.

I went through all of the charts, and didn’t find any STAM setups.  Remember I am looking for S1/S2 setups with strength/weakness combinations, where price pulls back and appropriate price action then justifies an entry.  I am not seeing such a setup on any of the 28 pairs.  Meanwhile there are some really nice 200-400 pip movements this week that I am just watching as they happen – examples:  EURNZD, GBPNZD, NZDCHF, NZDJPY, CADCHF, CADJPY, EURCAD, GBPCAD, USDCAD, EURUSD, AUDJPY.  Big movements.

No STAM setups.

Next action

Check the 4H candles again at 11am.

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2 Responses to Oct25 – Market Analysis

  1. 3pm update – entered two short trades (S3 setups) selling GBPNZD and AUDNZD with 0.1R risk on each trade. In terms of traditional STAM GBPDAUD looks good on 4H (bearish pin bar) and D chart (bearish pin forming) but cannot short this trade going into the weekend.
    The open trade (EURJPY) traded within 2.7 pips of my stop and then recovered to the entry level. Over the last 5 Sundays this pair has had gaps (most recently listed first) of +11, -25, -22, -116 and -10. For this reason it is not acceptable to leave the entire position on over the weekend. I will look to reduce the position by half by the end of the trading session.


  2. 5.30pm update – I closed 1/2 of the EURJPY position at the entry level. This reduces my “holding over the weekend” risk to an acceptable level. It was quite a ride for the position to go 57.3 pips against me (with a 60 pip stop) and then come back to the entry level. The 4H chart obviously looks good now.


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