Oct29 – Market Analysis

Personal Observations/Open Positions

I tightened the stop on EURJPY to 134.34 and was stopped out around 1am this morning, producing an overall loss of £132 (about 0.1R) – so more or less a BE trade – amazingly this had at one stage been 2.5 pips from being a full loser (£1,250).  The GBPAUD STAM trade I put on yesterday lunchtime was stopped out for a full loss (well, £125, 0.1R because I am trading from the new working environment this week) after ten hours.  The EURCHF trade came within 0.5 pips of my revised (upward) target, now trading a bit lower again.  I also reduced the stop on the GBPNZD trade, looking at pivots and price action to 1.9521.  It trade it as low as 1.9403 overnight.

Markets overall

Equity markets are still holding up.  Awaiting news from Fed meeting on Wed night.  BOJ and RBNZ are also holding their meetings this week.

FX Markets

CHF has lost a point to 11, EUR has gained a point to 13.  Everything else has stayed the same.  My biases are to buy CHF, EUR and AUD and to sell CAD, JPY,USD (weak absolute position) and NZD (weakening, falling down the rankings).

Potential setups: NZD pairsAUDNZD (pullback occurred, need bullish price action) – NZD made small gains against all currencies yesterday, but is starting to weaken again this morning.  CAD pairs – some good pullback on AUDCAD and GBPCAD, waiting for AUD and GBP to come back – on the other pairs CAD gained a little yesterday after weakening heavily at the end of last week.  Currently no STAM setups on CAD or NZD currencies.

AUDUSD and AUDJPY – yesterday I mentioned that I was waiting for bullish price action on these pairs in order to go long.  I did already GBPAUD but was stopped out after ten hours.  Just as with AUDCAD, AUD has not been regaining its bullish momentum.  It is continuing to fall against JPY and USD.

Looked through all the remaining pairs and did not find any STAM setups -> no orders to enter into the market.


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