Oct 30 – Market Analysis

Personal comments/open positions

The S3 GBPNZD trade is still open.  Price spiked overnight to 1.95205, leaving me plenty of space with my 1.9521 stop.  EURJPY, stopped out yesterday ended up rallying for the day and is now trading 135.20.  Oh well.  Meanwhile the S3 AUDNZD trade (which stopped me out on the Sunday night gap, prior to 10pm) has now reached my target.  So a bit of luck and a bit of bad luck, but it seems like things are moving in the right direction at least.

Equity Markets

Continued to rally yesterday making new highs again.  FOMC meeting tonight.  Gold is steady at $1,350.

FX Markets

AUD lost one point, and EUR gained one point.  GBP and NZD are sitting in the middle of the rankings.  EUR and CHF are still strong, with AUD still strengthening.  Sterling has actually been stable for around three weeks now.  Thus I am looking to short USD, JPY and CAD.  I will require higher quality setups if buying GBP or AUD.   Unlikely to enter anything ahead of the FOMC meeting.

GBPJPY – looked good from a price action setup – can’t take it because the weekly momentum is bearish.

AUDJPY – S1B environment, looks good – AUD is strengthening, JPY continues to be weak.  There has been a corn-trade setup on the 4H chart, following a good pullback nearly 300 pips. There has also been a bullish pin bar on the D chart, and price is moving away from a demand zone.  Those are a lot of factors speaking for a long trade.  On the downside, we have the FOMC statement tonight at 7pm, as well as AUD news overnight, and the BOJ meeting tomorrow, and price is heading into 200MA on D chart around 120 pips away – that’s three items of news within the next 24 hours.  On the basis of all those news items, I am passing on the trade.

Thus, in summary, there are no STAM setups on CAD pairs, USD pairs or JPY pairs.

Further action

No point checking 4H candles for the rest of the day because of the FOMC meeting announcement this evening.  

Assess the degree of price movement following the FOMC announcement.

Check NZDJPY on the daily chart on Thu morning


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One Response to Oct 30 – Market Analysis

  1. Just noticed the corn-trade setup again and wondered why I had not taken it, and then remembered. Could have another corn-up trade setup today (Friday) but it’s not as nice, and cannot take this going into the weekend.


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