Oct31 – Market Analysis

Personal comments

No open positions at the moment.  The S3-short GBPNZD trade was stopped out shortly after the FOMC announcement (it was trading at the entry level going into the announcement) – after going past the stop by approx 10 pips, it then declined heavily trading a few pips past my target at 1.6315.

I am finding things a little bit tricky with the timing of when I am doing my STAM analysis.  As I am now trading in a live trading room from 7am-10am (sitting at the desk from 6.30am!!) and from 1pm-3pm the natural time would be to get it done around 10am (or whilst I am in the trading room?).  Certainly the S3 trades, it seems I should check the close of all the 4H candles as the momentum can become OB or OS rather quickly.

Equity Markets

No major reactions following the FOMC announcement yesterday.  Markets are still very bullish.  Nasdaq has seen a lot of consolidation over the last several daily candles, and Spain has become more volatile.

FX Markets

USD has gained a point against Yen.  The rest of the matrix is still the same.  Primarily looking to sell CAD, JPY and USD as these are weak.  NZD is weakening. AUD is strengthening still.  GBP is neutral.  EUR and CHF are strong.  Looking through the STAM dashboard, and going only for strength/weakness combinations, I looked at the following:

EURJPY (S1B) – has had another pullback today – now waiting for bullish price action.

AUDJPY (S1B) – consolidating tightly – nothing doing so far, had considered entry yesterday but passed because of upcoming FOMC, AUD news and JPY news.  One bullish pin bar on D chart, but it is quite small relative to the pullback.  Stay out for now. 

EURUSD (S1B) – bullish pin bar forming on 4H chart, there has been nice pullback from the tops – nearly 150 pips – which is decent for this pair.  Check the 3pm candle.

AUDUSD (S2B) – very good pullback on this pair on D chart.  Now awaiting bullish price action (nothing on 4H).

AUDCAD (S2B) – good pullback in progress. Need to wait for bullish price action.

EURCAD (S1B) – falling heavily right now.  Presumably this relates to the CAD news that was released 20 minutes ago.

CHF pairs – pullback in progress for USDCHF (S1S), NZDCHF (S1S) [pulling back after a strong move over recent days] and same for CADCHF.

EURNZD (S1B) – pulling back

In summary, there are lot of pullbacks in progress.  A lot of momentum over the past few hours. But no STAM setups at this point in time.

Next action

At 3.30/4pm, review market for S3 setups on FX. Check pairs for which you are awaiting appropriate price action following pullbacks.


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