Nov1 – Market Analysis

Personal observations

Working from the ‘home office’ is great so far – the environment is relaxed and it just feels better (and warmer) and there’s actually natural light!  The JB trading room is a lot of fun.  Yesterday I had another skype catch up with my trading mentor, which as always, provided some very good insights.  God knows how much time & effort he has saved me thus far!

One point we discussed was position sizing – it seems that my position sizing is affecting my comfort and stress levels – consequently I will reduce the unit size risk from £1,250 to £750 for November.  For S3 trades I will use 0.5R (£375), for STAM trades I will use £750.

(Noon update): JB trading room was very tough for me today, registering 6 losing trades without a single winner.  Thank God I am trading small size (two mini-lots).  It’s already made me think a lot about what I might need to do differently, and how my approach may have to be varied to some extent.  This turns the previously winning week into a losing week for JBT.

Equity & Commodities

Equity markets are mixed. Some are rallying, some are falling.  As usual the Nikkei chart is the same as the USDJPY chart. Gold has been coming down a bit – from $1,350 to $1,325 (and it looks like there could be a bearish corn-trade setup on the daily chart!).  There are a few news items on the board today, for GBP and for USD.

FX Market – STAM

Very big changes in the matrix over yesterday.  In fact I have never seen such big changes in one day.

Yesterday: EUR-14, CHF-11, GBP-9, NZD-7, AUD-7, USD-5, CAD-2, JPY-1

Today: GBP-11, EUR-10, CHF-10, NZD-9, AUD-8, USD-5, CAD-2, JPY-1

This is certainly enough to confuse me – proceed very carefully!!  The number of currency pairs in S1 or S2 environments has reduced to the market swings yesterday.  So yesterday we saw strength in USD, GBP and NZD and a lot of weakness in EUR.

Checked through all relevant pairs – no setups in place at the moment.

FX-Market S3 Analysis

Many pairs have lost their S1/S2 environment, thus several more pairs are available for S3 consideration now.  Following the 11am review, I entered a short GBPCHF trade (see below for more details).  I will need to get into the habit of checking the 4H candles as often as possible.  However on Fridays, there is no point checking anything after the 11am candle, as it gets too close to the weekend after that.

 

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One Response to Nov1 – Market Analysis

  1. Short GBPCHF S3 position: Looked at the 4H chart. Every candle looked bearish. Trade is currently 20-25 pips in profit and trading near the low of the day. Decided to keep the position running into the weekend. Closed the position on FXCM and opened it on AT. Tried to minimise the spread cost but it ended up costing me around 3 pips to switch from one broker to the other. In the future trades taken close to the weekend, I will do an AT.

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