Nov4 – Market Analysis

Equity Markets & News

  • Several central bank announcements this week – ECB (Thu), RBA (Tue morning) and statement on Fri morning, delayed Oct NFP on Friday, Bernanke speaking Fri 8.30pm.  Equity markets still strong.  Gold still trading around $1,315.
  • Today I completed S3 for the equity markets but not STAM.

FX Markets

See updated momentum figures from last night.  In terms of STAM points, NZD has regained and Sterling has lost.  NZD now on 11, with EUR and CHF on 10, GBP on 9 and AUD on 8 – a gap, then USD on 5, and then finally CAD and JPY with 2 and 1.

There are only few pairs in S1/S2 environment now.

EURJPY has pulled back 250 pips – now waiting for bullish price action.  This encouraged me to get long on a JBT trade.  Similar story with AUDJPY.

AUDUSD – considered a long trade here after a significant pullback and bullish price action. However there is not a lot of difference in strength/weakness between the two pairs, and both are gaining at the moment.  Better to trade a strong versus a weak one – such as AUDCAD – check the AUDCAD 4H chart again at 11am – it may set up for a corn-trade.

EURCAD – bearing engulfing candle on W chart.  A bullish pinbar has formed on the 4H chart, but it did have a bearish close.  Hesitant to buy into EURCAD after such a strong decline.

No STAM orders to enter this time, but check the charts again at 11am.

S3 Setups

Checked through the 7am candles.  A large number of pairs currently do not have S1 or S2 environments, therefore all of them are S3 candidates.  Shorted USDJPY as a S3S setup – see below.  

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