Nov6 – Market Analysis

Open Position

CADJPY (S2S) – this position has moved a little bit against and is currently 15 pips in loss.  I guess I could have left my original short order at 9433, rather than being impatient and selling at 9423.  As my coach has warned me, it would be difficult to sometimes have conflicting views between the JBT trades and the swing trades. This morning I did three different JBT trades going long JPY, even though I was short CADJPY.  No need to adjust anything in terms of stops.  Note that there is CAD news at 1.30pm and again at 3pm.

STAM Analysis

FX Markets – NZD has gained further with the 89MA crossing against AUD on the daily chart.  The weak pairs on the matrix continue to be CAD and JPY.

Thus my focus is primarily on the CAD and JPY pairs.

  • EURJPY – still no real bullish price action, and price is near the top of the range (see W chart).  
  • AUDJPY – in contrast to EURJPY, there is a lot more distance to the previous highs – so it seems to be a better trade than EURJPY – although price has been pushing up slowly on 4H chart, there has not been an entry signal.
  • AUDUSD – very similar chart pattern to AUDJPY – also no entry signal here.
  • USDCAD – would consider because USD currently has strong momentum, and is gaining matrix points over time.  In any case, no significant pullback at this stage.  Cannot enter prior to CAD news.
  • AUDCAD – medium/strengthening vs weak – no pullback
  • EURCAD & CADCHF – no bullish/bearish  price action following the pullback, price pushing up slowly.

No STAM setups at this time.

S3 trading

NZD has been overbought across the board on the four hour timeframe – thus far there has been no bearish price signal and it is also increasing on the STAM rating points.  A quick check on the weekly momentum – the momentum is still not with the NZD.  So I have 6 NZD pairs with OB/OS conditions, and then 5 GBP pairs with OB/OS conditions. And that’s it.

The only place where price action has occurred (across NZD and GBP) is GBPCHF.  A small bearish pinbar completed at 7am, but this was overpowered by Sterling strength in the following two hours.  In line with the trading rules, I could not have taken this trade prior to the UK news at 9.30.

No S3 setups as at 7am or 11am.








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One Response to Nov6 – Market Analysis

  1. Was going to give the markets a quick STAM review – but bear in mind that I will most likely not enter any STAM trades on Thu or Fri because of the central bank meetings and NFP.
    EURJPY – Nice bullish candle on D chart, but no entry signal. Same for AUDJPY and AUDUSD
    CAD pairs – CAD has been strengthening since positive CAD news this afternoon. Pulling back.
    Nothing else to report.

    Short CADJPY (S2S) – Closed trade shortly before it hit the stop loss level to save 6 pips (after positive CAD news) – note that 5 hours later, the pair is still trading below the stop loss level. Loss of 0.9R on this trade.


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