Nov21 – Market Analysis

Personal reflections

Attended two traders networking meeting yesterday – which were insightful and a lot of fun.  Another half dozen JBT trades yesterday, with a net loss of 0.47R.  For the week I am down 1.88R with two trading days to go.  So it’s good to see that I am not simply donating back the 6.8R I made last week – in other words, I am still trading conservatively and carefully.

I was stopped out on the S3S AUDNZD trade yesterday after lowering my stop.  This resulted in a loss of 0.32R.  Since then the price has continued going sideways. So theoretically if I had not move my stop then price would still be between my initial stop and initial target – pretty exciting.

The Markets

Gold is selling of, thanks to a large 2,000 lot contract sales yesterday during which gold fell $10 in a short space of time.  It is now trading just below $1,250.

The equity markets retraced a bit yesterday, partly after the FOMC minutes brought forward the market’s expectations of tapering commencement.

FX Markets

USD strengthened across the board yesterday on the basis of the FOMC minutes.  Additionally EUR sold off somewhat during the afternoon on the basis of ECB comment increasing possibility of negative interest rates.

Thus in terms of points USD gained 1 point each of AUD, EUR and NZD.  GBP gained 1 point of EUR.  So we now have GBP and NZD on 12 points each, Euro (9 and falling), USD (8 and rising), CHF (7), AUD (5), CAD (3) and JPY (0).  Remember the principle of buying what is strong and/or rising and of selling things that are weak and/or falling.

Several more pairs have entered either S1 or S2 environments.  AUDUSD is S1S. EURUSD is S2S. USDCHF is S2B. GBPNZD is S2B.  As on previous days, there are still a number of S1 setups.

Nothing doing on the Yen S1 pairs – they continue rallying without giving the chance to buy on a pullback.  Nothing doing on the other S1/S2 setups either.

There were no S3 setups either.

Next action

Keep an eye on USDCHF (S2B)

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