Nov25 – Market Analysis

Personal notes & trading results

Finished off another good trading week on Friday.  The JBT trading for the 4th week was 12W-10L-3BE for a net gain of 2.94R, bringing the total for the 4 weeks to +10.0R, and an implied strategy edge of approx 19% after some 82 trades.  Additionally there were 3 completed S3 trades (2W-1L, +0.69R).  However there was also one “gambling” trade (i.e. a trade entered outside the approved trading strategies) resulting in a loss of 0.53R.  Thus a net gain of 3.10R for the 29 completed trades.

Consequently, thanks to another profitable week (the 3rd consecutive one), the monetary value of unit of risk increases from £100 to £200/trade for this week across all trading strategies.

(However starting off very negative with this morning’s trading – currently down more than 4R with the JBT trades).

Market Analysis

Equity markets rallied on Friday with new record closes on the US indices, DAX and Nikkei also very strong.  Gold is continuing to fall – now trading $1,233.

FX Markets

Weekly Momentum update: Interestingly only four pairs changed momentum at the end of this week – CADJPY, GBPCAD (turned bullish); EURGBP, AUDNZD (turned bearish).  The ranking is now USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, CHF, JPY, NZD and finally AUD.

  • Moving up/strong: USD, EUR, GBP, CHF
  • Neutral: CAD (weak absolute rating, 3rd in weekly momentum, moving up in points a little)
  • Moving down/weak: AUD, JPY, NZD

Potential STAM setups – a large number of pairs have switched into either S1 or S2 setups – I will only review those with a strength/weakness combos:

Yen pairs (all in S1B, except for AUD and NZD) – strong rallies continue – no pullbacks thus far.

Nothing coming close to a valid setup except for several of the NZD pairs – I have noted in this in the list of things to monitor below.

S3 setups

As a result of many pairs now in S1 or S2, only six pairs now have S3 potential.  Potential setups on CADCHF and EURCAD – both are in respective overbought and oversold areas, and there has been the relevant price action (need to wait until 11am for the candles to close).  Both these trades would be going against the recent 4H trends.  For EURCAD, price is also at a supply/resistance area where price has retraced from several times, so this is another factor that increases the odds for a trade here.

Next action

  • At 11am, check on CADCHF and potentially take short S3 trade.
  • Watch for bearish price on NZDCHF (S1S) – watch for bullish price action on EURNZD and GBPNZD and NZDUSD.
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One Response to Nov25 – Market Analysis

  1. Really horrendous day thus far. I think I have dropped about 8R – more than my total November gains to date. Insane!
    EURCAD – this trade is now open, and is a bit in profit – maybe the Euro will crash and I will make some good R on this trade?!
    NZDCHF – no trade opportunity. Pullback continues on GBPNZD and EURNZD, and the Kiwi is now trading sideways against the USD.

    Like

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