Nov27 – Market Analysis

Personal notes & trading results

No JBT trades today – I am not in the right mental state to do so.  Listen carefully to JB and learn, but do not trade!  (see earlier “reflective” post)

Equity Markets

No huge movements – remember that it’s Thanksgiving Day in the US this week – whenever this happens it reminds me of my 2-week trip to Athens in 2003 (where I stayed in between shifting fro one London flat to another) and getting my laptop stolen on the day prior to Thanksgiving day – I was busy day-trading YHOO front-month options and at that time, was well on my way, to blowing up my $15k OptionsXpress account!!

FX Markets

Strong/strengthening: CHF, EUR, GBP, USD

Weak/weakening: AUD, JPY, NZD, CAD

Fundamental factors: RBA and RBNZ consider that their currencies are overvalued.

Potential AUD and/or NZD setups on S1 or S2:

  • AUDUSD is in S1S – but I don’t have a setup.  EURAUD – S1B – waiting for setup. AUDCAD – don’t trade as CAD is also weak.  AUDCHF and GBPAUD are also in S1/S2 setup.  So, I don’t have any valid STAM setup in regard to the Aussie dollar.
  • Looked at NZDUSD, EURNZD, GBPNZD and NZDCHF – unfortunately no STAM setups here as at this moment. 
  • For both AUD and NZD I also looked how the pairs looked from a JBT perspective (obviously only the MA’s without the institutional lines).  Basically on all these pairs price pulled back over the first 36 hours of this week and resumed the bigger trend from yesterday afternoon before consolidating today.

Yen pairs – they all pulled back on Monday and Tuesday morning – however there was no entry on STAM – the 4H charts were basically flat (against all strong currencies) and then just shot back on Wed morning during the Asian session.  It would have been possible to catch these with aggressive JBT trades, but not with STAM.

No setups on any of the other pairs in S1/S2 environments.

S3 Analysis

One thing to bear in mind from the EURCAD trade – don’t go against the STAM – we were shorting EUR here even though that is the strongest pair on the STAM and buying CAD (one of the weakest) – of course this is with the benefit of hindsight.

No valid S3 setups at this time.

 

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