Nov27 – reflections

Nov25th and losing 10R in a single day did turn out to make a bit of a dent in things.  After relaxing at Camden markets and doing a little bit of xmas shopping on Monday evening, I spent a lot of time on Tuesday thinking about my trading activities thus far.  I guess that’s inevitable after taking such a beating.  I also managed to play some more raquetball with a friend, do some of the thinking in the Serpentine Road cafe in Hyde Park, and then check out a potential new office for working together with some traders from the last Traders Network drinks.

In some ways this “beating of the market” is similar to what happened in Nov 1st to 14th Dec 2011, in which I lost £21k over the space of six weeks (including £3.8k of money that my team-mates from another project had invested with me).  In that time I went 12W-29L-3BE and lost 13R.  At that time that amount comprised a good 10% of my entire bankroll.  I guess what happened on Monday, is that a similar experience was squeezed into a single trading session!  On Monday I lost £2k and went 0L-9L.  Fortunately I was only risking £200 a position, so the entire loss was only £2k, and as a proportion of the entire bankroll, it’s a lot less than 10%!!

So what happened on Monday?  I didn’t go bonkers.  I continued trading more or less calmly. I hadn’t broken any of my trading rules, and I was following the setups of the trading strategy.  It just happened to be a bad day.  However it has again made me question the potential profitability of the system – a 75%-85% win rate?  It seems high.  The JBT trade leader also would have made a good 6-7 losing trades (and on average losing about the same R per trade that I did) – this was followed with another 4-5 losing trades in the first half of Tuesday’s session.  On that basis we would need a net 40 winning trades to keep a 80% win rate!!

One thing to bear in mind is that I have had days where I made 6 winning trades and no losers, however on those days the average per winning trade was less.  Wow, there’s so many things to think about…. (whereas, ironically today, I had decided [prior to the start of the session] to give all my trades more room to move, as often trades on which I was stopped out turned into profitable ones – that meant that on many of Monday’s trades I lost 1.5R!).

Aside from JBT, I also thought about many other trading aspects – and scribbled down many thoughts.  Lots of things to work through….

Things to do today:

Attend the London and New York session of JBT (but listen and observe, do not take any trades).  Study the charts a lot.  Then do S3 and STAM analysis (here I can take trades).  Then carry on with the thinking/reflections you started yesterday, and have a skype session with the coach this afternoon.  Then back to Camden for more shopping and then the Speedskaters Club AGM (exciting stuff!).  Onwards and upwards!

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