Dec9 – Market Analysis

Personal reflections

Another horrible week last week – dropping 10R in only three trading days – good thing I am only experimenting and risking £100/trade!  Is it related to the fact that I had been on holiday the preceding four trading sessions, and then only traded in the mornings on Thu and Fri?

On the upside – I had some good dialogue with other traders, and it looks as if the move to an office with 3 other traders at the beginning of January is confirmed.  At minimal cost of £125/month for me.

Did some more soul-searching and thinking over the weekend – made some notes of this, and again looked at my goals and targets for trading for the next quarter, and also at the tasks that I want to get done (tasks that I believe will turn me into a good trader).

Market Analysis

NFP figures came out a bit better than expected.  However the market has interpreted the figures as lowering the chance of tapering at the Dec Fed meeting.

Chinese trade figures over the weekend came out positively.  This should prove favourable for the Aussie dollar.  More worse than expected data from Japan.

It is now just over two weeks to Christmas – expect markets to quieten to some extent.

STAM Analysis

CHF, EUR and GBP are strong.  AUD, CAD and JPY are weak.  NZD and USD are sitting somewhere in the middle.

The Yen pairs continue to be in S1B.  EURJPY, CHFJPY and USDJPY have moved significantly already following NFP and made new highs (they were trading sideways most of last week).  Have gone long GBPJPY – see post below.

Also entered long position on GBPAUD – initially entered limit order to pay 8035 but then raised it to 8045 when I was scared that price was going to run away from me, without me getting into the trade.  Consequently I am now risking 1.2R on this trade – rather than 1R.  [Note: It traded 8035 shortly afterwards, so I could have entered 10 pips lower, but I guess I was more afraid to miss out on a winning trade – what’s going to be my general rule – be patient and potentially miss out, or sacrifice a few pips in order to make sure I catch it?]

No other setups for now – though many pairs are in either S1 or S2 setup.

Next action

  • Keep an eye on NZDCHF, EURNZD on 4H chart.  Consider entering GBPNZD on basis of D chart, at the end of the day.
  • CADCHF – wait for pullback to the 20MA and then short it.
  • Check for S3 setups throughout the JBT NY session and have another look through all the STAM setup charts – is there anything that is in fact a valid STAM setup? Is there any S1/S2 pair that I can take using a JBT approach?
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