Dec12 – Market Analysis

Personal observations and position management

  • Had a meet up with my trading coach/mentor today – we went through some of the STAM/S3  trades I have been taking – my mentor was pretty happy with all of the trades – the only setup he questioned was the Dow
  • I did trade this morning and we lost a good 5R in just three JBT trades – one of the losing trades was a whopping 50 pips – I didn’t think we were going to risk that much.
  • The short Aussie trades worked well last night.  And obviously it helped that today (whilst I was having an afternoon off!) the RBA came out and said that AUDUSD should be trading 0.8500 (rather than 0.9000) – so the remaining half of the short AUDUSD trade did rather well.  It is now at +163 pips.

Equity Markets

Equity markets fell yesterday across the globe – on fears of tapering at the Dec Fed meet next week?  No S1 setups on US indices or Nikkei at this point.

The US retail sales number came out today.

STAM Analysis

  • Slight change on the matrix with AUD losing 1 point and JPY gaining one point.  Thus strong and weak camps are still the same.
  • AUD pairs – there are some pullbacks happening this morning (I know since I shorted AUDJPY and AUDUSD early this morning and am looking at losing JBT trades!!) – i.e. Aussie strength – however (in my opinion) they are not significant enough
  • AUD is seeing a lot of weakness across the board – overnight there was the Aussie employment report (better than expected) but still the market pushed it down further.  Was this another typical example of a ‘post-news/sentiment’ play?  Update at 7pm:  See my earlier comment re RBA announcement.
  • Yen pairs have pulled back across the board and are currently looking bullish on the 4H charts.  The 4H candles will close at 11am.  I am going to be in a meeting with my mentor at that time, so I may need to enter the trades on the basis of partially completed candles – GBPJPY looks the best option – purely from a chart perspective – however in terms of sentiment EUR is stronger than GBP.  USDJPY is not an option because of the US retail sales number this afternoon.   Update at 7pm:  Trying to get into GBPJPY now – still that seems to be the best Yen setup – but I seem to have missed it.
  • Cable – again considering this one – S1B – but Sterling has been a bit weak yesterday – there has been a pullback – going long near recent highs – bullish price action on the 4H chart.  Update at 7pm: There was no confirming bullish price action – so no trade.
  • NZD pairs – interest rate meeting last night – some hawkish comments as RBNZ would like to raise rates in 2014
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