Personal observations and position management
- Had a meet up with my trading coach/mentor today – we went through some of the STAM/S3 trades I have been taking – my mentor was pretty happy with all of the trades – the only setup he questioned was the Dow
- I did trade this morning and we lost a good 5R in just three JBT trades – one of the losing trades was a whopping 50 pips – I didn’t think we were going to risk that much.
- The short Aussie trades worked well last night. And obviously it helped that today (whilst I was having an afternoon off!) the RBA came out and said that AUDUSD should be trading 0.8500 (rather than 0.9000) – so the remaining half of the short AUDUSD trade did rather well. It is now at +163 pips.
Equity markets fell yesterday across the globe – on fears of tapering at the Dec Fed meet next week? No S1 setups on US indices or Nikkei at this point.
The US retail sales number came out today.
- Slight change on the matrix with AUD losing 1 point and JPY gaining one point. Thus strong and weak camps are still the same.
- AUD pairs – there are some pullbacks happening this morning (I know since I shorted AUDJPY and AUDUSD early this morning and am looking at losing JBT trades!!) – i.e. Aussie strength – however (in my opinion) they are not significant enough
- AUD is seeing a lot of weakness across the board – overnight there was the Aussie employment report (better than expected) but still the market pushed it down further. Was this another typical example of a ‘post-news/sentiment’ play? Update at 7pm: See my earlier comment re RBA announcement.
- Yen pairs have pulled back across the board and are currently looking bullish on the 4H charts. The 4H candles will close at 11am. I am going to be in a meeting with my mentor at that time, so I may need to enter the trades on the basis of partially completed candles – GBPJPY looks the best option – purely from a chart perspective – however in terms of sentiment EUR is stronger than GBP. USDJPY is not an option because of the US retail sales number this afternoon. Update at 7pm: Trying to get into GBPJPY now – still that seems to be the best Yen setup – but I seem to have missed it.
- Cable – again considering this one – S1B – but Sterling has been a bit weak yesterday – there has been a pullback – going long near recent highs – bullish price action on the 4H chart. Update at 7pm: There was no confirming bullish price action – so no trade.
- NZD pairs – interest rate meeting last night – some hawkish comments as RBNZ would like to raise rates in 2014