Dec16 – Market Analysis

Position Management

I am still in the short AUDUSD position – it has been trading sideways.  Stop still at 9020.

Markets generally

  • There is a lot of news happening this weekend – with the most important even most likely being the FOMC announcement on Wed evening at 7pm, with the news conference following at 7.30pm.  The big question is whether the Fed will begin tapering its asset purchases, whether immediately or if not, then at what stage in 2014.
  • Given the amount of scheduled news announcements, I need to be very careful with my STAM trades.  I should expect a lot of volatility and whip-saws!

STAM – Equities & Gold (no setups)

  • Gold continues to be volatile, trading between $1,200 and $1,250.  Currently in S1S – waiting for big pullback.  Equity markets – several of the European indices are in S2S environment (waiting for more significant pullbacks).  Although the FTSE has just broken through its 200MA on the daily chart – this MA has held very well throughout 2013.  Would it be a good idea to short it at the 200MA assuming that it will break through this time?  The Nikkei is still in S1B (waiting for big pullback).   The weekly momentum is bearish on all markets, except for the Nikkei.

STAM – FX

  • EUR and CHF are still the strongest (13 points each), Sterling is on 10, then in the neutral camp we still have USD and NZD (6 and 8 points), and then CAD (4) and JPY and AUD (1 each).
  • Following last week’s close, the following pairs had a change in the weekly momentum: EURUSD turned bullish; GBPCHF and USDCHF has turned bearish.  Strongest weekly momentums are EUR/GBP/CHF – corresponds with STAM points – JPY, AUD and NZD are the weakest – CAD and JPY are in the middle.
  • Potential setups: GBPJPY, EURJPY, USDJPY.  Nothing else for now.

S3-FX setups (no setups)

  • NZDCAD is currently the only S3 candidate – meaning that it changed a weekly momentum change in the past month, and that it is currently not in a S1 or S2 setup.  No S3 setup occurring on this pair.

Next action

  • Watch for corn-trade setup on GBPJPY at either 3pm or 7pm. 
  • Check setup on USDJPY at 3pm and 7pm
  • EURJPY (S1B) – Considering to go long immediately following strong bullish 4H candle – stop 50 pips, 1st target 70 pips – considering to go long once Draghi has finished speaking in Brussels.

 

 

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2 Responses to Dec16 – Market Analysis

  1. No valid setups on USDJPY or GBPJPY at 3pm.

    Like

  2. Pingback: Stock Market Analysis – as of Dec 19th 2013 | Inside the Right Mind

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