Jan8 – Market Analysis

Personal notes

Arrived in the office and not feeling the best.  Failed the psychological assessment scoring 4/10.  Following some mental exercises my score improved by 2 points.  Good work.  Shifted focus on attaining high productivity for the day – applying my existing strategies (STAM/S3, JBT and supply/demand) and if there is time, continue research/development of strategies in the pipeline (focusing on Turtles and “Anti-Turtles”).  Also meeting with a broker today to discuss the preparations for my ‘FX option’ presentation in Hong Kong – nice!

Open positions (both opened yesterday morning) – short AUDUSD and long GBPAUD – the first one has traded sideways, the latter went 60-70 pips against me but is now back around my entry level – I guess I got a bit excited and wanted to buy during the upward momentum – maybe I should have waited for a one-bar 4H retracement first?  No adjustments required at this point.

News – tonight the FOMC minutes will be released – this is a key risk event.  There’s also ADP employment figure at 1.15pm.  Tomorrow are rate decisions from BOE and ECB, followed by NFP on Friday.  Thus a lot of key risk events in the next three days – therefore proceed carefully – it’s going to be like a minefield in Vietnam out there.

STAM Analysis

No change in the ranking points.

Main tactics:

  • Looking to buy GBP, potentially also EUR and NZD
  • USD is fairly neutral
  • CHF points also in the middle, but is weakening – thus also a potential sell against EUR or GBP
  • CAD, JPY and AUD still weak – look to sell these – [note there has been huge selling of CAD over the last 24-36 hours – why? Risk-off? – looks rather amazing on nearly all of the 4H CAD charts]

There are currently no STAM setups – review again at 3pm – however highly highly unlikely that I would enter a new trade a few hours prior to the FOMC minutes release.

S3 Analysis – no setups on the FX pairs.  Review again at 3pm.

Equities

No setups on Equities.  Interesting observation on the Spanish index. It is in a S1B environment – there had not been a sufficient retracement – thus no STAM entry – however with the Turtle strategy I would have entered on the break of the high and caught the move up.  Interesting.

That’s all thus far.

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