Jan15 – Market Analysis

Personal observations

Additional note re short AUDUSD trade yesterday – placement of my stop was not the best – I had already noted (right early on) that the stop was in front of the pivot line, but left it there.  This did end up costing me.  I got stopped out 2 pips from the high, and since then the pair has fallen over somewhat.  That’s a mistake that I shouldn’t really be making!

Yesterday was actual a big day for me – one losing trade, but a lot of learning taken from that one single trade.   It helped me a lot to mould the Supply/Demand strategy that I am trying to put together.

Equity Markets & Gold

Gold rallied a little bit on Monday.  US indices fell strongly yesterday.  European indices still trading sideways.  No STAM setups on the indices.

STAM Analysis

NZD, AUD, CAD and JPY were very strong performers yesterday so they shifted up the STAM rankings a little bit.  CHF was also strong.  GBP still on 13, despite the heavy drops. EUR, CHF, NZD sitting on 10-11.   USD on 6 and the rest on 1-3 points.

So longer term perspective – for STAM setups – looking to buy GBP, EUR, NZD and CHF, and looking to sell the rest.

For a more immediate perspective – for Supply & Demand setups – the focus is different.  The strong momentum right now is with NZD (and the NZD pairs are in some S1 and S2 environments) – look for setups on those.  What is really weak in the shorter term perspective?  CAD, GBP, CHF and maybe EUR.

Today there is UK CPI at 9.30 and US retail sales at 1.30.

I reviewed all the pairs that are in either S1 or S2 environments, and none of them give any valid setup.  Thus at this point there are no STAM trades to take.  Check again at 11am.  Completed by 7.30am.

S3 Analysis – completed – no setups thus far.  A lot of the pairs are working in tandem as one would expect.

Action to take

  • Review S1 and S2 environments again at 11am.
  • Work on the Supply/Demand until then.
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One Response to Jan15 – Market Analysis

  1. Completed STAM review again at 11am – no setups. Sterling showed some strength across the board ahead of the UK CPI, but because of softer numbers it came down and retraced. As a result all of the 11am candles have a wick to the upside – which more or less invalidates potential longs. I more or less ignored weak/weak and strong/strong combinations (‘weak’ and ‘strong’ from a longer term perspective).

    S3 – also completed S3 review. There was a reasonable on USDCHF (to go long) – however I cannot take this trade ahead of the US retail sales figure at 1.30pm. Thus no setups.

    This morning was reasonable. I took two trades trying to follow through on strong Asian session momentum buying GBPJPY and NZDUSD – both trades are in profit. I took off 1/2 from the GBPJPY position prior to the UK CPI figrue. I also bought Cable following the retracement on the bad news. Thus, at the moment, it looks like three profitable trades today.


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