Feb5 – Market Analysis

No huge changes on the matrix in terms of weekly and daily timeframes.  USD, GBP and NZD rise 1. CHF dropped by 2 and EUR dropped 1.

Thus in the big picture – we still have GBP as very strong, EUR weakening, USD and CHF fairly stable, and Yen strengthening.  All of these are sitting just above the midpoint in the matrix.  On the weaker side we have NZD (weakening) and AUD and CAD continuing to be weak.  Thus looking to sell AUD, CAD and NZD.  Looking to buy GBP and JPY.  Neutral on EUR, CHF and USD.

The Nikkei and S&P seem to have caught themselves and traded fairly flat yesterday after their heavy falls.

Recall there are key risk events for EUR and GBP on Thursday with the rate meetings.  Additionally today is the ADP employment change for the US, and finally NFP on Friday, which will likely affect all currency pairs.

There were no STAM setups as at 11am, except for a potential short on NZDJPY (I will make a separate post on that if necessary).  Additionally there are several promising S3 setups. Note that because of the EUR and GBP rate decisions, most of the pairs involving these currencies are effectively void in any case.

In terms of “Zone trading” yesterday – I took a full loss on GBPJPY (short) and scratch trades [more or less] on AUDCHF (long) and EURAUD (short).  Net result was a loss of 1.18R.

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