26th Feb – Market Analysis

FX: The only change from yesterday is AUD losing 1 point to JPY.  The rest of the rankings are still the same, so the strong/medium/weak camps on weekly/daily timeframes have not changed.  Note that the markets are extremely quiet at the moment.  There was very little movement on Monday and Tuesday.  I guess this explains why I have had a string of partial losing trades, simply because the markets are not making the moves that my setups are anticipating.  I guess at this time, it’s better just to stand aside.

There are several pairs with S1 or S2 setups that are of interest to me (these entail currencies from different groups):  USDCHF, NZDCAD, NZDCHF, NZDUSD

NZDCHF – I had entered a trade on this pair yesterday and came out with a partial loss.  Interestingly it is STILL trading around the same level.  The initial stop loss and the initial target have never been touched thus far.

Both of the other mentioned NZD pairs are purely trading sideways, in a very tight range.  It’s the same situation with USDCHF. 

S3 (reversal) setups – I am going to take a look at all the charts now, but I really don’t expect to see any setups because the markets have been trading in such a tight range.  (5 minutes later) As expected, none of the pairs are in oversold or overbought territory on the 4H timeframe.

Regarding the ‘zone’ strategy – there are some pairs that are trading near or in zones, but no clear setups exist.  Additionally with the markets being so quiet, I am reluctant to put on trades – as trading in the quiet markets in the past two days, has produced some losing trades for me.

Equities: all the equity markets continue to rally, without significant pullbacks.  I don’t see any setups at this point.  I started to look at the charts in a bit more detail, but I stopped because it’s taking my focus from the FX markets.  Nothing in terms of STAM or S3.

Gold is still moving up strongly, looks very smooth on the daily chart.  There have only been two negative days for the whole month of February.  The second down candle was followed by a bullish engulfing candle, which was probably a S2B setup.  We were discussing the quietness currently present in the FX markets, and we considered the idea, that all the big money is flowing into the gold market, explaining the rampant appreciation there.  Remind you, by now it’s gone up $90 from $1,250 to $1,340 since the start of the month.  I would like to take a closer look at this market later this morning, though more likely at the 4H chart.


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One Response to 26th Feb – Market Analysis

  1. 11am update: The markets are dead for the 3rd day running. We continued hypothesizing what may be causing this. We kept on coming back to the unstable situation in the Ukraine. We found that the natural gas futures contract managed to drop nearly 20% since the start of this week.
    Back to reality: No STAM or S3 setups for the FX markets nor the equity markets.


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