Mar3 – Market update

Further changes on the matrix.  CHF and GBP now on 13, then with a distant gap to two currencies on 8 points (weakening EUR and stable NZD). Then, JPY is strengthening (on 6), USD on 5 with AUD and CAD being very weak.

Some news today from UK (9.30) and the US (3pm) and Draghi speaking at 2pm.

However, a lot of the focus remains on the situation in the Ukraine.  There has been a lot of flight to safety with JPY (primary) and CHF (secondary) being the main benefactors.  USD has also had some safe-haven appreciation but not as much.  Equity markets are falling.  Gold had a nice up gap on Sunday night and has been rallying back to its previous highs above $1,340.

FX-STAM setups: reviewed and nothing set up on FX pairs.

FX-S3 setups: reviewed all currency pairs.  Took trade on EURAUD (short) – see comments above.

Equities:  The US markets, the Nikkei and the DAX are now retracing rather strongly on the Ukraine situation.  I will now need to wait for bullish price action on the 4H chart before going long on the indices with S1B or S2B environments.

Gold: still in S1B – gapped up on Sunday $1,325 to $1,338 on Sunday night.  Note that it did briefly fall below $1,320 on Friday, but now it is rallying strongly, presumably on the basis of Ukraine-related safe-haven demand.  Unfortunately this did not set up any further, following the losing S1B trade I took on Thursday.

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2 Responses to Mar3 – Market update

  1. 11AM UPDATE: No further S3 setups. Came out of the S3S-EURAUD trade with a loss of 0.2R (10 pips). Maximum excursion was 47 pips.
    New STAM trade on NZDCAD (S1B).


  2. 3PM UPDATE: No further setups on STAM or S3 on the 28 FX pairs.
    The market is not moving a lot today. Most of the attention continues to be on Crimea/Ukraine.
    The NZDCAD has seen a max +ve swing of some 16 pips and a max -ve swing of 10 pips. [stop loss=50 pips]


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