4th March – Market update

FX markets

Sterling dropped two points yesterday at the expense of JPY and NZD.  JPY has now climbed to 7 points, all on the back of it’s safe-haven status in the face of the Ukraine crisis.  Similarly, CHF is steady on 13.  Sterling now on 11.  Thus nothing has really changed in terms of what I am looking to buy and sell in terms of the STAM framework.  In terms of the shorter timeframes (15M-4H) everything is around the same, ranking between 13-15 points (out of max of 28), except for NZD on 22, and GBP on 6.

In terms of news, there are several rate meetings to come this week (ECB, BOE, BOC) as well as NFP on Friday.  RBA was actually this morning – which I was not aware of!  Additionally, I will have to keep a sharp eye on the developments in the Ukraine. The squawk is making that very easy for me.

There are no S3 setups for FX at 7am.  It took me an entire 5 minutes to complete that analysis – nice!  There are a lot of FX pairs that are in either S1 or S2 environments – I looked at all the relevant 4H charts – but I couldn’t see any valid setups. 

EURCHF is rallying – presumably due to market becoming a bit more risk-on in light of Putin’s 6am comments.  Watch this pair for a potential short entry, if the chart starts to show bearish PA.  Somewhat similar of a story with USDCHF.

Equities:  Most of the indices continue to be in S1B environment.  Exceptions are DAX, Spain and the Nikkei.  Equities are rallying early this morning, on the Putin comments.  No setups.

Gold:  Gold dropped off sharply this morning, on the Putin 6am announcement.  It dropped $13 rather quickly.  It continues to be in S2B environment.  The chart is starting to look more choppy. No setup.

Oil is also in S1B environment (I have added this to my FXCM platform).

Position Management: 

EURAUD hit the target that I had set at the outset of the trade.  I would have had to plan for the RBA announcement.  See chart on the post of the original trade setup.  NZDCAD has not really moved a lot – 20 pips down, 20 pips up.  It behaved in the same way when there was a S1B setup early last week – it traded sideways for some days before the pair rallied close to 200 pips.

 

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2 Responses to 4th March – Market update

  1. 11am update: There are no S3 setups for the FX market. There are no STAM setups for the FX market.
    I don’t check S3 setups for the indices. However I did check STAM setups for the equities market and entered a trade on the Spanish index.

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  2. 3pm update [this was one from my home, after leaving office at 1.30pm and a break at Teasmith]: No S3 setups on any of the FX, equities, or oil/gold.

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