5th March – Market Update

FX Markets

Yen and CHF have fallen back, losing two points each– this is most probably because the Ukraine situation is starting to stabilise.  In contrast, GBP and NZD have gained two points each– so I can presume that they should presently be seen as “risk-on” currencies.  EUR is still sitting on 8, with JPY now on 5 and weakening and then the usual AUD, CAD and USD in the weak camp.

ADP employment figures will get released at 1.15pm – this will probably inject some volatility into the market.

There are no S3 setups on the 28 FX pairs on the close of the 7am candle.  I am reluctant to try to apply the S3 methodology to the indices, because the CFD markets for these do not trade liquidly 24 hours a day as the FX markets do.  In fact, several of the indices, such as ESP35, do not trade at all between 4.30pm and 8am GMT.  STAM setups can handle that, but a strategy based on the 4H chart is not suitable for that.

There were no STAM setups for the close of the 7am candle.

Equities: All of the indices put in bullish engulfing candles on the daily chart yesterday thanks to the stabilisation of the Ukraine situation.  The S&P is near historic highs (again).  Majority of the indices are in S1B environments.  Several of them seemed to set up for a bullish V-pattern earlier in the session yesterday – and the setup did in fact play out like that for all of them.  That was essentially the basis for me longing the Spanish index – out of all the available indices, the Spanish index seemed to be closest to the bottom of the V-form formation – and thus seemed to be the most logical choice.

Gold and Oil: Both retraced yesterday – again mainly driven by the Ukraine.

Position Management

Both the NZDCAD trade and the ESP35 (Spain Index) are in the black however not significantly so.  The NZDCAD trade has now been open for 48 hours and has barely shifted, currently at +25 pips (max +40 pips).  Interestingly, on the short-term STAM dashboard CAD and NZD are the two strongest currencies so it’s not surprising that the pair is not moving a lot.  The BOC has its rate meeting this afternoon, so I will need to plan ahead for that one (3pm).

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One Response to 5th March – Market Update

  1. 11AM UPDATE: No S3 or STAM setups on any of the markets.


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