Mar11 – Market Analysis

FX: No changes at all in the daily and weekly points on the STAM matrix from yesterday.  To recap, CHF is the strongest on 13.  There continues to be the same weak camp, although the AUD is strengthening to some degree.  The other ‘weak camp’ members are CAD, USD and JPY. GBP and EUR are steady on 10.  NZD on 11.  Some bits of news coming out today but nothing world-shattering.  It’s interesting that although the Ukraine situation is still ongoing, the financial markets seemed to have stopped paying attention to it altogether, instead everyone is now focusing in on the weak Chinese trade numbers.

There are no S3 setups on the close of the 7am candle in the FX market.  In terms of STAM, I went long AUDUSD (another blog post to follow shortly).  There were no other STAM setups on the FX markets at 7am (even though there were a couple of interesting instances).

Gold is trading in a range now.  No setups.  Will it cleanly break $1,350 to the upside?

Indices: No setups. The majority of the markets are in S1B environment – but nothing has retraced significantly.

Commodities: Other news is that both copper and iron ore have now entered bear markets – what were the key reasons for these?  Interestingly AUD, which has normally has a strong correlation with commodities, is staying strong.

Review of open positions

Prior to looking for new S3 and STAM setups, I want to look at the six open positions that I have in the market at present. 

Firstly the 4 CAD positions – this constitutes a risk of 2R in the market.  A good question to ask – If CAD has 0 points on the matrix then why I am buying it?  Two of the pairs that I put are actually in a S1 or S2 environment.  Well, each of the pairs formed very good reversal patterns on the 4H chart and the sentiment was overbought/oversold. For now, those are the key drivers for my trade setups on S3.  Thus I followed the plan.  However given that CAD is so weak on the larger timeframes, I will keep a close eye on the trades.

I closed the USDCAD position because it had clearly moved above the MA100 on the 15M chart overnight, with both of the shorter MA’s moving away from the MA100 and in an upward direction.  Thus I closed the position in full for a loss of 0.36R.  I left the other CAD positions open because they are effectively trading sideways at this time.  Thus even though price has not reversed as I had expected by now, it has not moved majorly against me.  For that reason, I am keeping the trades open at this time, but I will monitor them closely and will close them if CAD weakness seems imminent in the short term.

The STAM positionsEURNZD is doing well now and it is 70 pips in profit.  I did close half of the position yesterday when it against me soon after entry and reached the level of the aggressive stop.  AUDJPY is showing a small loss of 12 pips at the moment – as with EURNZD, price fell to (and well past) the level of the aggressive stop and thus I only have half of the position remaining.

 

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One Response to Mar11 – Market Analysis

  1. 11am update: Entered a further STAM trade on AUDUSD (going long) – see blog post above for more details. No other STAM/S3 setups on indices, commodities or FX.
    3pm update: No S3 setups. Entered further STAM trade buying CHFJPY (S1B) – see blog post above.

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