Mar20 – Market Analysis

Back trading today after 4 days of ‘no trading’ due to computer issues.  After making a whole lot of changes I think I am now in a stronger position than before.

FOMC meeting last night resulting in USD strength because the first interest rate hike now expected in Q2-2015 rather than August 2015.  QE should finished by the middle of this year – was reduced by a further $10billion at last night’s meet.

No change in the STAM rankings on the daily and weekly timeframes. CHF still on 13, NZD on 11, EUR on 10.  NZD is still strengthening.  GBP on 7 and has slid considerably.  Then we have AUD on 6 and strengthening. USD, JPY and CAD have been between 2 and 4 points each.

Thus looking to buy CHF, NZD – potentially EUR, NZD and AUD – neutral on GBP – looking to sell CAD.  What about JPY? Hmmm, not sure on the whole.

7AM update (using AT charts) – STAM & S3:

  • Took S3S trade on GBPAUD.  No other S3 setups on the FX markets.
  • In considering STAM, I was looking at AUDUSD which is in a S2B environment.  I did consider during S3 as well and had decided against it because of the small size of the triggering candle.  However, on second consideration I decided to long it.
  • There were no STAM setups at 7am on the FX market.

8am candles (on FXCM charts) for the equities and commodities –

  • The indices have all pulled back following the FOMC meeting.  This is to be expected given that the tone was more hawkish than expected.  There are no setups at present (remember that I don’t check the indices for S3 setups).
  • Gold has pulled back significantly, from above $1,390 to $1,330.  Now waiting for bullish price action.

S3 setups @ 8am (from FXCM charts) – no setups at this time.

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