further non-technical thoughts about George’s trading

10.15am: I just talked a walk around the Hofgarten (a very nice park) in the sunshine for half an hour – enough for nearly three “laps” – that’s my sport for the day LOL – not quite the routine of a competitive inline skater.

Had a very late night last night hanging out with my cousin and my sister till 2am.  Got back into continuation of the testing this morning.

I felt I needed a walk because I am just getting quite confused about all the FX trading matters.  My coach keeps telling me to try to pinpoint which area is giving rise to problems:

  • is it money management?
  • is it the conditions of the market [in that it might not be suited to the trading strategy]?
  • is it the trading methodology (strategy) itself that is simply not a profitable system?
  • or is it my mindset and physical condition?

As I said before, I’d like to believe that I am about as good as I can get regarding money management – thanks to entertainment industry experiences.  The trading methodology – looking at the EMA strategy as an example – Joel, the guy who has explained the strategy to me, says that he has been consistently making money with the strategy for many years – so I think that strategy is a profitable one – so the strategy, in the way that he trades it, seems fine.   The conditions of the market – I have managed to trade in a losing matter in many different time periods over the years and with many different approaches – I lost money on the FX markets with STAM throughout 2013, with the JBT trading room in late 2013/early 2014 (on FX), with an attempt at zones/demand/supply in early 2014 (on FX), with EMA for FX, DAX and S&P the last few months, with trading opening gaps and first hour ranges on the mini S&P futures contract in 2011, and in trading US equity options in several instances.  So it seems that regardless what market and what strategy, I manage to blow money on a consistent basis.  Therefore, I would conclude that it is NOT the market conditions, nor the trading strategy, that give me the problem.  So in a way this suggests that the only remaining cornerstone is the trader’s mindset i.e. my psychology or mental state and functionings as well as my physical well-being.

I’d like to think that I am in pretty good physical shape.  I eat and drink well – although the last few months I have drunk beer and wine more often than I have previously – but not in any massive manner.  However most of the time, and for about six years now at least, I exercise on a regular basis.  Thus the only thing that remains as the candid can of worms and what is likely to be the infected area is my mental state.  So I am suggesting that my psychology – or my patterns of thinking and beliefs – are what are causing me to fail as a trader.

But could this just be a bull-shit excuse for my technical trading incompetencies?

Sometimes I think twice about what i write on this blog – it’s not as if I am just sending these posts into the cyberworld – I am pretty sure most of the small number of people who read these posts regularly are people that actually know me personally and see me on a regular basis! Sometimes I wish that nobody was reading these posts – then I wouldn’t need to hold back as to what I write.

Let’s assume for a second, that it is in fact the psychology that is an issue – does this mean that I should stop working on all my trading technical competencies, and spend all day lying on couches and talking to shrinks?  Do I have to try and peel back as many onion layers as possible so that I can truly get to my core – and figure what makes me tick and why – why I believe certain things, why I have the behavior patterns that i do?

Somehow I just don’t like this line of thinking.  Surely it must just be down to me not being technically competent enough – to not really understanding the markets – that this is the cause of my unprofitable trading.  Or maybe it’s that as well as a fucked up head.  I just don’t think that it’s mainly down to my mindset.  I just can’t believe that.

ok, no real decision reached here.  just trying to write down my thoughts.

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