Results of EMA testing on GBPUSD (38 trades over 6-month period)

I have concluded six months of EMA testing in ForexTester2 on GBPUSD, June-November 2012.

Summary:

  • 38 trades (thus was more selective in choosing setups than the AUDUSD testing)
  • 13 winners (34%), 22 losers (58%), 3 scratch (8%) trades
  • Net Result -2.62R (a loss), average Reward-Risk ration was 1.46
  • These results were quite similar to AUDUSD where a small gain occurred – thus, again these testing results are much better than the EMA results I achieved with live trading from June-September 2014.
  • However the testing at this point indicates a break-even strategy, NOT a profitable strategy.
  • Using multiple timeframes for setups is proving to be a key difference – 29 of the 38 trades (or 76%) were entered from the 5M timeframe and achieved a result of +0.5R, 6 (16%) from the 15M and made a loss of 1.98R and 3 (8%) were from the 1M timeframe.    During the live trading, nearly 100% of the trades were taken from the 15M timeframe.
  • Position Management issue is an issue – not using a consistent approach – though in many cases am using the timeframe below the Execution Timeframe (XTF) to manage the trade – e.g. managing 5M setups on the 1M chart
  • I ahve been trying to manage the trades to allow me large winning trades – however I am not achieving any large winning trades – in fact only a single trade made in excess of 2R – what does this show?
  • Far less than 50% of the setups that I am taking are anticipating the price movement correctly –  therefore is it futile to talk about position management when the setups are not getting me into winning trades to begin with?
  • Is Cable, or any of the other GBP crosses, more tricky to trade on the shorter timeframes because of the high frequency of 9.30am GMT news releases?
  • Would there be merit in using the 15M timeframe to fade the XO’s?
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