Bayreuth is a medium-size in northeastern Bavaria (Germany) and is most notably known for the composer Richard Wagner (and less noteable for the Maisels Weisse brewery). This is where I spent 3 weeks in September, shunning away from live trading and analyzing my trades over the May-August period, as well as doing some testing. Thanks to this work, I then introduced the multiple timeframe assessment as well as a more stringent threshhold for having smooth, consistent trend/sentiment. Integrating these points into my live trading has had a favourable impact -making 8.5R in two weeks, then giving up a little in the third week (-1.6R) before finally really slumming it this week with losing 4.9R (!!!). Thus trading like a real loser this week has allowed me to wipe out nearly all these initial gains, with me being ahead now just +1.9R over 4 weeks. However…. given that I was averaging a loss of 10R per month for the three preceding months (I know that is just really useless, right!?) – a break-even month is a massive improvement.
My gut feel is that the introduction of these two points has made my EMA-strategy trading a lot better – going from an average monthly loss of 10R to being slightly in profit. That’s the first observation. The second observation (or hypothesis, I should say) is that my failure to be consistent in my trade management is hurting me – in terms of results, and also in causing me a lot of stress when I have positions open. So I need to get this sorted out. I think if I get that sorted out, then I should be able to average around 6R per month (1.5R per week) from the EMA strategy, again assuming I take around 15 trades per week.
So I guess that will be the focus of the next trading month -cementing the position management. Wow – that means at the November, there will be only 10.5 months to the deadline!! OMG – am I going to make it!??!?! It’s amazing how long things and how progress seems to occur so slowly. But then if I do consider this as an apprenticeship then it doesn’t seem unreasonably long. It’s like I am doing a “Bachelor of Trading”.
[Leading to more banter and thinking ….. ] Additionally I figure all this stuff I am learning now – how incredibly important it is to really clarify setup parameters, to really clarify trade management points, to do testing – is something I have realized I have to discover and work on. I just wish someone would have given me a piece of paper listing these things when I first dabbled in US equity options way back in 2003. I guess educational trading books and courses do try to tell you exactly that, but somehow it can’t just be deposited into your brain. It’s something you have to work out yourself. Resources and mentors definitely help along the way – but it’s a long journey. Or maybe I am wrong. Maybe the journey is just long for me, and is so because I am not very suited to trading. Maybe I am trying to be good at something that is not really meant for me. When I did accountancy, when I did IT consulting, and especially when I did poker – I learned, progressed and made good money reasonably quickly – leading to me having a bankroll and being able to set time aside to become a good trader. Or when I commenced long-distance speedskating, competing in an annual 24 hour race in Le Mans/France – I got success quickly. Should I have hit success equally quickly in trading? Interesting question.
The reason for this blog’s existence is my trading coach requiring me to start one back around April 2013. The key purpose was to “help him to keep an eye on what I was doing”. I am not sure whether that was a trick on his behalf. Because the real benefit is how helpful it is to me – by writing the blog – I am effectively looking at my trading a bit from a 3rd person’s perspective – it’s amazing how putting my thoughts, experiences and ideas on the blog is really clarifying things for me – it also puts things into a bigger picture, and it helps to calm me and to carry on and not get discouraged. I am finding that when I get “punched” by the market (most of the time this effectively means that I screwed up somehow) I am getting off the ground much more quickly than I did before. That can only be a good thing, right?
It’s certainly putting more odds into my favor of becoming successful in trading. Plus it allows me to laugh aloud at my own trading experiences!!
And so it is effectively just a kind of diary or journal for me – mainly written to help myself – but somehow making it public makes me a lot more accountable. As a sidenote, a lot more people are looking at the blog now. The last 5 weeks have had an average 100 page views per week – wicked!!