Progressed further on analyzing the 64 trades taken over the last four trading weeks, which comprise the first batch of trades following my adjustment of using multiple timeframes for entry, and being more selective as far trend & sentiment is concerned. Unfortunately I still got 20 trades to analyze. The good news is that I have already made some very insightful observations. There are some surprises. There are some things for which I, up to this point, had a gut-feel, but for which I can now put some hard numbers – a good example here is how much it costs if I am taking sub-optimal setups, or related to, entering setups too late. And thirdly, it does look as if I will be able to come up with a few solid tactics for managing my open positions going forward – thus hopefully increasing clarity and decreasing stress. I hope to share these tomorrow.
For now, here are some points so far (which will not change despite 20 trades remaining to be analyzes) – though these are certainly not game-changing insights:
Out of 64 trades:
- 36 were on the DAX, and 14 on GBPUSD – 78% of the total on 2 instruments
- 43 (67%) were on indices and commodities and only 21 (33%) on FX pairs
- The long/short split was the same as the last split: 43 short trades, 21 long trades
- 20 winners (average +1.02R), 29 losers (-0.61R), 15 scratch trades (-0.05R)
- 42% of trade were entered between 12pm and 3pm GMT
- 57 of the trades were executed from either the 1M or 5M timeframes – with very few trades being taken off higher timeframes (such as the 15M or 1H) – bearing in mind that the 200 or so trades taken from May to August were all off the 15M timeframe
The plan is to complete analyzing the remaining 20 trades tomorrow morning, and then possibly trade the New York crossover session tomorrow.