The weekend is for resting, right? Yeah, whatever – I worked pretty much all of Saturday and Sunday. I had to somehow make up for the insomnia-induced late starts throughout the week as well as another rollercoaster week really. Plus I tend to be able to concentrate and think a lot better when the markets are shut – hmmm, that’s probably not a good observation – should my concentration not be at its peak when I am trading off 1M and 5M charts?
Anyways, this weekend was full in terms of things that happened and thoughts that crossed my mind:
- On Fri night/Sat morning, made good headway on prioritising things on my trading “pipeline” – which consists primarily of trading strategy ideas. Reduced the present short-list to Anti-Turtles, Oil triangles, swing trading (taking into account all kinds of skills and angles I have developed in my various phases of trading) and 123 reversal patterns
- On Sat morning, rather than making my Anti-Turtles Excel backtesting model even bigger, I just tried to think clearly through my assumptions on this topic. I won’t get into more details here, else this blog post will get really huge. If you ever want to talk about the Turtles strategy then please do get in touch – I have some views, have done some research and built some ok-to-use backtesting models. The conclusion of my thinking today though was that I can cross this strategy of the list of potentials. Progress!
- I then somehow ended up analysing the DAX 5M chart of the past week in great detail. I drew all kinds of things onto the charts – ascending and descending triangles, double bottoms, double tops, 123 reversal patterns, trendlines, Wallarchi continuation patterns, EMA XO’s, noting ’00 and ’50 levels, demand & supply zones – the works.
- Following that, I left the office and headed to Westminster to check out the panel discussion at the World Money Show, in which my mentor Paul Wallace took part. The topic was the fusion of technical and fundamental analysis, as well as trying to throw in some psychology elements.
- 1 of the panel speakers, Andrew Gebhardt from Finex LLP, pointed out that currently computers cannot match humans in terms of recognising patterns on charts – interesting point – I had not considered that before. He thinks that it will take a long time before computers will beat humans in this area.
- The real benefit of the Money Show came from the networking and sinking several bottles of beer (pints for all the others!) at a nearby pub afterwards, and consequently generating a lot of laughter. Bear in mind that networking is one of the objectives on my operations plan so this was obviously a highly productive few hours. It was a great chance to get to know Phillip Konchar in more detail, he runs TraderCast as well as a prop shop hosting a dozen traders in Dublin/Ireland.
- An unexpected guest in our small group at the pub was Curtis Faith, one of the original Turtle traders in the mid 80’s. Unfortunately I didn’t get a chance to speak with him. Curtis wrote the popular book “The Way of the Turtle”.
- On Sunday morning I returned to the Goswell Rd trading office, armed with the idea of specialising in just the DAX, oil and Cable (GBPUSD) – basically doing what i did with the DAX 5M charts the previous afternoon. Consequently I studied the DAX and oil charts and thought about this could all pan out as I go through the trading week.
- Idea of rather than actively managing trades, simply enter stop and target at the entry time, and then leave the trade do its own thing, thus minimizing the amount of decision-making required and reducing stress. It seems that I am most objective at the time of entry – so why not capitalise on that – using this approach would make the trading more similar to a fixed-bet scenario such as roulette or blackjack.
And thoughts for the week ahead:
- All trades this week therefore will be Cable, Oil and DAX only.
- R reduces from £67.50 to £50/trade because the last week was a losing one.
- EMA strategy – consider restricting myself to the 5M timeframe, to avoid over-trading and this should result in me being more selective in my setups. On the EMA trades – stick to the position management rules coming out of last week.
- Trade primarly 5M XTF, but can trade 1M XTF, if it supported by technical pattern on 5M – consider being able to trade off the 1M not this coming week, only the following week – just observe this week and see whether the 1M would work out very well
- Trading Hours – ready in the office at 8am. Finish at 4.30pm. Minimise breaks to avoid missing setups. Trade Docs/Review at 4.30 – leave office at 5.30? So all trading should be done from the office – although do consider checking the Oil and Cable charts at 7am prior to leaving for the office. Thus, trading from home is now done. Back to the office it is! No trades after 4pm for the DAX?
- Post-news trades (adopt the Wallarchi-news strategy here) – observe for now, document – don’t actually trade them this week – refer heavily to Wallarchi-news document – focus on DAX, Oil and Cabl, but also check impact of Tier-1 news on other instruments – EUR, CAD, USD crosses etc.
All right, can’t wait for the next trading session to roll around. Off to dinner with a friend.