1st June – Detailed 5M chart analysis & some USDJPY data analysis

First day back after several days away from trading.  This time the break happened because I was helping my nephew with his exam preparation – fingers crossed.

It wasn’t a pleasant day trading – just because none of the trades ended up in positive territory for the finish line.  So I had 6 trades, losing a total of 1.69R (an average of 0.28R per trade). As usual all the relevant charts are below.  The charts look very cluttered because I wanted to mark many points on them.  I don’t really expect anyone to be able to follow them.  In reviewing the trades, I also looked at the charts generally to see whether there are other setups that appeared on the charts (just for my watchlist of instruments – Cable, EURUSD, EURJPY, DAX and, as of late, also USDJPY.

Questions:

  • How often does an instrument’s price range exceeds its Daily ATR(14)?
    • It seems for USDJPY, for a few years worth of data, the pair’s net movement for the day exceeds it’s ATR on only about 10% of the trading session.
    • The day’s range exceeds the daily ATR in about 41% of the session
    • There seems to be a discrepancy in the (D)ATR value – for example for the present value I get 71 on FXCM-MT4 but 89 on FXCM-Marketscope – need to figure that out still…

381 eurjpy jun1

379 dax jun1

377-382 usdjpy jun1

  • How does the USDJPY hourly volatility vary throughout the day – it is a lot more in the New York session than in the European session

usdjpy range by hour of day usdjpy movement by hour of day And here the chart for the EURUSD trade – looking at it now – this wasn’t a good trade.

378 eurusd jun1

Psychology Review

Trade #382 on USDJPY – happened just before 3pm.  I had spotted a bullish 123 & double bottom on the 5M (see chart).  I quickly went long around 2.54pm – then I (luckily) recalled that there was Tier-1 USD news at 3pm so I closed the trade immediately for a 0.22R loss.  My stop had been 15 pips.  Price jumped 20 pips on the news and then just kept going.  However I was satisfied that i had exited the trade.  Entering just prior to news and betting on price going in the direction does not constitute good trading in my books.

On the whole – news aside – I believe that my technical reading on this was ok.  Despite the bad US Tier-2 news price was not able to go down and stay down – price continued to rise and find support around the 124 handle.  The 1H trend is still bulllish – thus I am looking for long trades.  The bad thing here is that i went long within less than two minutes of sitting down at my desk after returning from my 30min break – this doesn’t sound right – it doesn’t sound like the competent trader.  The best way to do this is to monitor the price and anticipate the setup and not take a break.  or if taking a break, take a couple of minutes longer to run through a mental checklist (which would include checking the news schedule).

Trade 379 (DAX) – good technical reading – patient and professional entry.  Incompetence is displayed in not managing the trade properly.  I was up 57 points and ended up with a loss of 14 points, using a stop of 40 points.  I was not skilled enough to do this properly.

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