First day back after several days away from trading. This time the break happened because I was helping my nephew with his exam preparation – fingers crossed.
It wasn’t a pleasant day trading – just because none of the trades ended up in positive territory for the finish line. So I had 6 trades, losing a total of 1.69R (an average of 0.28R per trade). As usual all the relevant charts are below. The charts look very cluttered because I wanted to mark many points on them. I don’t really expect anyone to be able to follow them. In reviewing the trades, I also looked at the charts generally to see whether there are other setups that appeared on the charts (just for my watchlist of instruments – Cable, EURUSD, EURJPY, DAX and, as of late, also USDJPY.
- How often does an instrument’s price range exceeds its Daily ATR(14)?
- It seems for USDJPY, for a few years worth of data, the pair’s net movement for the day exceeds it’s ATR on only about 10% of the trading session.
- The day’s range exceeds the daily ATR in about 41% of the session
- There seems to be a discrepancy in the (D)ATR value – for example for the present value I get 71 on FXCM-MT4 but 89 on FXCM-Marketscope – need to figure that out still…
- How does the USDJPY hourly volatility vary throughout the day – it is a lot more in the New York session than in the European session
Trade #382 on USDJPY – happened just before 3pm. I had spotted a bullish 123 & double bottom on the 5M (see chart). I quickly went long around 2.54pm – then I (luckily) recalled that there was Tier-1 USD news at 3pm so I closed the trade immediately for a 0.22R loss. My stop had been 15 pips. Price jumped 20 pips on the news and then just kept going. However I was satisfied that i had exited the trade. Entering just prior to news and betting on price going in the direction does not constitute good trading in my books.
On the whole – news aside – I believe that my technical reading on this was ok. Despite the bad US Tier-2 news price was not able to go down and stay down – price continued to rise and find support around the 124 handle. The 1H trend is still bulllish – thus I am looking for long trades. The bad thing here is that i went long within less than two minutes of sitting down at my desk after returning from my 30min break – this doesn’t sound right – it doesn’t sound like the competent trader. The best way to do this is to monitor the price and anticipate the setup and not take a break. or if taking a break, take a couple of minutes longer to run through a mental checklist (which would include checking the news schedule).
Trade 379 (DAX) – good technical reading – patient and professional entry. Incompetence is displayed in not managing the trade properly. I was up 57 points and ended up with a loss of 14 points, using a stop of 40 points. I was not skilled enough to do this properly.