15/4 – Testing & a dozen live trades

Testing

I’ve been working hard this week.  I completed a lot of testing in ForexTester2 working through Cable, EURGBP and USDJPY instruments.  Whilst I was doing this I was firming up the aspects of my intended revised and simplified trading strategy.  The trading strategy still revolves much around EMA10 and EMA20, but now uses the 1H timeframe as opposed to the 5M timeframe.  Click here for a discussion of pros & cons of trading either timeframe.

Whilst testing Cable, I realised that some of the aspects were still quite subjective – thus broke the setup components down further, with the goal of making them more objective.  This made it easier for me to spot a valid setup and it improved the results (and less time required to complete one year’s worth of testing) for EURGBP and USDJPY.

I took 70 trades across those three instruments.  Every one of those trades (as well as some missed setups) are received the special treatment of having their picture taken and being archived.

Live Trading (with small position sizing, risking £25/trade)

Surprisingly, whilst doing the testing, I also managed to monitor 30 instruments on the 1H timeframe for setups in real time.  This was possible because (i) I only had to check the charts once per hour (ii) I knew what I was looking for in terms of a setup and (iii) the trade management approach was very simple .  This resulted in a dozen live trades, ironically in a dozen different instruments.  Winners averaged 1.5R, losers averaged -1R; net result was an impressive 6.5R.  Here is a quick slideshow of the trades:

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Next fortnight

This week then, I got 80 trades under my belt using a consistent setup and a consistent trade management approach.

The aim is to continue testing, on different instruments, refine & document the trading strategy clearly, and establish the strategy’s edge (if any!), and then be ready to trade it live from the beginning of May.

Traders Forum – tomorrow!!

If you are stuck for something to do and want to have a day of seminars on trading, then come to the Traders Forum in central London tomorrow (Saturday, 16th April) – £149 for 7 hours of lectures with breakfast and lunch included.  Be sure to say hi to me if you go!  Details here.

 

 

 

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3 Responses to 15/4 – Testing & a dozen live trades

  1. James Gillespie says:

    Hiya George, Interesting read on your system development. I also used ForexTester2 a little while back looking at Crossover strategies, I concluded its a zero sum game at best, whatever the Time Period. I have not found a 100% mechanistic approach that yields long term positive returns….if there was well the industry would have been turned over to the robots long ago. That’s my view anyway…..not to distract from the obviously diligent work you are putting into the process to harden your nerve, which is essential.

    I’m a believer that the edge comes from the human element.The human can decipher whether the setup has potential to be positive or a faker in the making…..no amount of mechanistic setup parameters can configure probabilities like we can, unless your an Oxford quants grad and have superior computing and coding capabilities.

    Keep at it and the right approach for you, will deliver itself…..whatever the TF or trigger parameters.

    See you tomorrow
    James

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Hi James. I agree with you that a 100% mechanistic approach is not the way to go for retailer traders. Organizations with more resources, technology and money will be far quicker and far better at doing that than any individual human trader. Thus, I am focusing to ensure that my strategy also contains some elements that do not lend themselves well to programming. FYI, some time ago I wrote a blog post on this exact topic

    https://gputtner.wordpress.com/2015/12/21/2112-retail-traders-automated-strategies/

    Great – see you tomorrow!!

    Like

  3. Pingback: 25/4 – Trading strategy testing continues | Trick or Trade - the story of a currency trader...

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