Back in December I ran some analysis over a batch of 40-50 trades I had completed in preceding weeks. Click here to go that blog post. Looking at that data I came to the conclusion that I was making profits in the first half of the day (the London session) and then giving the profits by trading in the afternoon (the New York crossover session).
I ran the same analysis for the 40 trades I completed last week – last week I traded both in the mornings and in the afternoon from Monday to Thursday. Interestingly this time data the data looked quite different.
Last week the pattern of profitable mornings and non-profitable afternoons did not exist. If anything it looked as if the pattern was now reversed. Hail to those who always go on about not making conclusions from sample sizes. Thought this was worth sharing – nothing significant I would say at this point, but regardless an intriguing observation.
The graph below shows the cumulative performance for last week. How was the graph compiled? The 40 trades were ordered by entry time. The earliest trade, entered around 7:30am was assigned the first spot in the data series. The second earliest trade was assigned the second spot, and the cumulative profit/loss at that point comprised the profit/loss of those two trades. Then the third trade was taken into account and so on. The net result of the 40 trades was a profit of 1R – hence that is where the line finishes:
For comparison, here are the graphs for the analysis completed in December for another similar-sized batch of trades:
Bring on next week, and a raft of central bank interest rate decisions. And will the Dow hold above 20,000?